Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 26 2026 - 00Z Wed Oct 28 2026

...A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across the southern High Plains
through tonight, lowering to a marginal risk by Monday morning...

...Heavy rain threat persists along the east coast of Florida with a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southeastern Florida
through tonight...

...Wet snow develops over parts of the northern Rockies and the northern
High Plains Monday and Tuesday...

An amplified weather pattern featuring an upper-level low sliding across
the Four Corners against a strong ridge of high pressure anchoring across
the South will maintain a stream of subtropical moisture from Mexico into
the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. Under this pattern, this
moisture plume will shift very slowly eastward over the next couple of
days. The most active showers and some embedded thunderstorms are found
across the south-central High Plains south of a stationary front this
Sunday afternoon. WPC maintains a slight risk of excessive rainfall
through tonight for much of the southern High Plains where additional
heavy rain could form ahead of a trough of low pressure. From Sunday night
into Monday, a low-pressure wave is expected to develop over the central
High Plains and move northeast toward the northern Plains. A swath of rain
ahead of the low-pressure wave will gradually overspread the northern
Plains, bringing 1 to locally 2 inches of soaking rain area-wide and into
the upper Midwest by Monday evening. The low-pressure wave will also drag
colder air from the north, which could change the rain to wet snow across
the higher elevations of the central and northern Rockies into tonight, as
well as across western South Dakota into central North Dakota on Monday.

Meanwhile, persistent easterly flow on the south side of a large and
strong high-pressure system under the slow-moving weather pattern will
continue to feed Atlantic moisture toward the Sunshine State. This will
maintain a threat of heavy rainfall for the east coast of the Florida
Peninsula. WPC highlights a slight risk of excessive rainfall for
southeastern Florida through tonight, lowering to a marginal risk for
Monday and Tuesday.

Across the Pacific Northwest, a low-pressure system is edging gradually
onshore. This system will bring a round of rain area-wide through tonight,
possibly with a few embedded thunderstorms. The rain is expected to
penetrate further inland across Oregon, reaching into Idaho on Monday. By
Monday night into Tuesday morning, high-elevation snow is forecast for the
northern Rockies before the snow lightens during the day as the system
exits into the northern High Plains.

Elsewhere, under the amplified and slow-moving weather pattern, cooler
than normal temperatures are expected to prevail along the East Coast and
down into portions of the Gulf Coast states through tonight before a
warming trend sets in on Monday. In contrast, return flow from the south
will bring much above-normal temperatures well into the 70s and lower 80s
from the central and southern Plains across the Midwest and Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days. Meanwhile, dry weather will prevail
across the Southwest. Colder than normal temperatures will overspread the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies behind the low pressure system.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 01 2026


...Overview...

An upper low will meander atop British Columbia and the
northwestern U.S. mid to late week, while shortwaves farther south
serve to deepen the trough across the West. Precipitation looks to
focus across the Northwest Wednesday-Thursday, and meanwhile
tropical moisture will spread into south-central Texas for
potentially heavy rainfall. Downstream upper ridging will allow for
warmer than average temperatures to spread across much of the
eastern half of the U.S. through the week. Rounds of light to
moderate rain are possible in the Midwest to Northeast as
shortwaves traverse north of the ridge. Then by late week,
combining systems and the deepening western trough should bring
more widespread precipitation to the Intermountain West and
broadening in the central U.S. into next weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models maintain very good synoptic scale agreement through at
least Friday, including their depictions of an upper low slowly
drifting from British Columbia into the Northwest, deepening
troughing overall in the West, and downstream mean ridging. A
multi-model blend of the dynamical and AI individual guidance
worked well to depict the pattern.

More notable differences within the large scale pattern start to
arise next weekend as model solutions diverge with the evolution of
the trough in the West. Solutions range from a more consolidated
upper low that slowly drifts southward along the West Coast (as
depicted by the 00Z EC and EC-AIFS) to a more elongated and strung
out trough driven by multiple embedded waves and southern stream
enhancement (like the more recent runs of the GFS and AI-GFS). The
latest 12Z guidance has trended more towards the elongated
evolution for Saturday, but shows many different/possible outcomes
for Sunday. So while increasing troughing across the West is still
a safe bet for next weekend, there is still considerable
uncertainty with the finer details... which will of course have
impacts to temperatures, QPF, etc. To mitigate these differences,
40 to 50 percent of the blend was anchored by ensemble means which
offered a reasonable middle ground approach for now.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Rain and higher elevation snow are forecast for the Pacific
Northwest across the northern Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday-
Thursday with the persistent upper trough. Shortwaves in the
northern tier will also support rounds of rain and possible
thunderstorms in the Midwest. Farther south, rain and thunderstorms
are forecast for the southern Plains, ramping up by Thursday as
moisture from current Hurricane Vance streams in and produces
potentially heavy rain in the Edwards Plateau/south-central Texas.
Into late week, deepening upper troughing across the West with
Pacific and Gulf moisture inflow will lead to broadening
precipitation coverage for much of the West and increasing for the
central to east-central U.S. by next weekend. The details of where
precipitation occurs and could be moderate/heavy are dependent on
the uncertain upper-level flow, so expect changing forecast
details. Additionally, persistent easterly flow across Florida will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to at least its east
coast.

Well above average temperatures are expected for portions of the
central and eastern U.S. from day to day under mean upper ridging.
Highs in the 70s are forecast as far north as the Upper Great Lakes
region, with 80s reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley, broadly
around 15-20 degrees above normal. Temperatures should be slightly
below average in the western U.S., especially for highs.


Tate/Miller


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 00Z Mon 26 Oct 2026 - 00Z Mon 02 Nov 2026

A weak boundary dropping south will keep light northeasterly flow
across the region and windward showers across Maui and the Big
Island through Monday.

Thereafter, more impactful weather is still likely to impact
portions of the state by Tuesday into Wednesday with areas of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible. A weak wave of low
pressure along an elongated trough axis should move across the
state during this timeframe, bringing an increase in forcing and
southeasterly low level winds and moisture transport. Favorable
right entrance region upper jet dynamics, and PWs increasing
towards 2.5" will also support heavy rainfall, and with some weak
instability forecast, thunderstorms are also a possibility. While
some uncertainty with the exact details remain, models are
starting to come into better agreement. This initial surge of
forcing should be fairly quick moving, impacting the state Tuesday
into Wednesday, and should feature a more widespread area of
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, with models
clustering in an axis from Oahu to the Big Island. Model QPF is a
touch down from earlier cycles, but given the moisture, forcing
and instability forecast, locally heavier totals are still
anticipated, and at least some flash flooding is probable.

By late Wednesday into Saturday this more widespread convection
should exit the region, with a weakening of the overall forcing.
However, PWs will remain elevated and the trough axis will remain
nearby. Thus, while probably not as widespread, periods of
locally heavy rainfall will remain possible over the state, with
the best chances across the windward portions of Maui and the Big
Island.

Chenard

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Oct 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 26 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...16Z update...

No changes were made with this update and reasoning with previous
discussion looks good. The 12Z HREF members and 12Z RRFS showed
local maxima of 2 to 4+ inches over southeastern Florid and in the
vicinity of the northern TX Panhandle.

...Central and Southern High Plains...

15Z visible satellite imagery showed fairly widespread cloud cover
across the eastern half of NM which will be a short term
hindrance to the development of instability. However, some
forecast thinning of those clouds and daytime heating should allow
for the development of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE over central to eastern
NM with locally higher values over south-central NM into far
western TX into the afternoon. The greatest coverage and
probabilities for heavy rain exist across the TX Panhandle where
instability is expected to keep rain rates a bit lower compared to
farther south into southeastern NM and far western TX. However, the
coverage of cells will likely be more scattered to the south
compared to the better synoptic forcing farther north.

...East Coast of Florida...

Both the 12Z HREF and 12Z REFS showed probabilities for mainly 1
to 2 in/hr rates across the eastern FL Peninsula for much of the
period, but these probabilities lower and translate toward the
south with time tonight between 06-12Z. Previous forecast remains
reasonable with no changes made.

Otto

...previous discussion follows...

...Central and Southern High Plains...

An upper level low will track across the Four Corners region and
central Rockies today, while shortwave energy moves north across
the southern and central High Plains ahead of the low. This setup
will bring anomalously moist air into the south-Central U.S.,
tapping into Pacific and Gulf moisture that will fuel scattered to
widespread convection on the leading edge of the system. PWAT
values are expected to rise to 1-1.5 inches (2-4 standard
deviations above normal) from West Texas through the central High
Plains. The highest instability (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) is expected
to focus across portions of West Texas and New Mexico, which will
likely support intense rainfall rates up to 1-1.5 inches per hour.
Instability will be more limited over the central High Plains, but
modest instability (MUCAPE around 500 J/kg) combined with upper
level shortwave support should allow for some deeper convection
with locally heavy rainfall. Scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible from West Texas through portions of the southern
and central High Plains, which is highlighted with a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall for today. Soils are already saturated from
recent heavy rainfall over portions of West Texas and eastern New
Mexico, and increased runoff may heighten flash flooding concerns.
Areas near steep terrain and burn scars will also be vulnerable to
flash flooding.

A broader Marginal Risk area extends further north into the
central Plains where soils are less susceptible to flash flooding
but locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated instances of
flash flooding. Moisture will spread even further north ahead of
the system into the northern Plains, but with little instability to
work with, it will be difficult to get rainfall rates heavy enough
to pose a risk of flash flooding.

...East Coast of Florida...

A mid-level low will gradually move south over the Atlantic
parallel to the Florida Peninsula, then stall offshore of
Southeast Florida by this afternoon. This will result in a
prolonged period of northeasterly onshore flow along the East Coast
of Florida, with an emphasis over Southeast Florida. Moisture
wrapping around the northern side of the low circulation will bring
PWATs across the Peninsula up to 1.5-1.75 inches and up to 1.75-2
inches across Southeast Florida, which will support scattered to
widespread showers and storms that will form over the Atlantic and
migrate over the coast. Coastal convergence will focus the highest
precipitation totals right along the coast, which will create a
risk of isolated instances of flash flooding along the I-95
corridor south of Jacksonville. As the system stalls, precipitation
will target Southeast Florida, which is where the highest rainfall
totals are expected today. Hi-res models show rainfall totals
reaching 1-2 inches across Southeast Florida with locally higher
amounts possible. Given the sensitivity of urban areas of Southeast
Florida, scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible
and there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for much of this
area.

...Pacific Northwest...

A closed upper low will gradually move onshore in the Pacific
Northwest today, accompanied by steady rainfall along a leading
cold front and scattered to numerous post-frontal showers across
western Washington and Oregon. Locally heavy rainfall may be
possible, but given the dry antecedent conditions there is not
expected to be a flood threat with this system.

Dolan


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Oct 27 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...21Z update...

...Central and Southern High Plains...

The 12Z models showed good agreement on the movement of the upper
low to track northeastward from the central High Plains on
Monday, and an upper trough axis forecast to advance through AZ/NM.
The upper trough will be associated with a a 70-90 kt upper level
jet streak which will bring favorable diffluence and divergence
aloft over the southern High Plains between 18-00Z, coinciding with
peak daytime heating and 1 to 3 standardized anomalies of
precipitable water. Brief training/repeating of thunderstorms will
be possible among MLCAPE values of roughly 500-1500 J/kg,
supporting hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches.

...Southeast Florida...

The Marginal Risk was maintained for southeastern FL given the
continued potential for isolated excessive rainfall. While the
model signal for high QPF has fluctuated over the past 24 hours and
the latest models do not indicate very high rainfall totals (40 km
neighborhood probabilities from the 12Z HREF/REFS are ~30 percent
or less for 2+ inches/24 hr), limited potential remains for mainly
urban flash flood impacts across the urban southeastern corridor.

Otto

...previous discussion follows...

...Central and Southern High Plains...

The upper low will push past the Rockies into the Plains,
resulting in surface cyclogenesis over the central/northern Plains.
Scattered showers and storms are expected in the warm sector of
the system over the central and southern High Plains. Similar to
Sunday, anomalous moisture streaming ahead of the system will
spread along the trailing cold front up into the northern Plains,
but the best instability will be limited to the central and
southern High Plains, which is where the highest flash flood risk
is expected. Precipitation totals are forecast to be modest
compared to previous days, but there will likely be a period of
enhanced convection Monday afternoon into Monday evening as an
upper level shortwave moves north into the region. During this
period, the ingredients will be in place to support a threat of at
least isolated instances of flash flooding within the Marginal Risk
area.

Widespread precipitation is also expected over the northern Plains
in the vicinity of the surface low, but with little instability,
rainfall rates should remain moderate at best. Model guidance is
showing rainfall rates and totals remaining well below current FFGs
for the area, so there will be little to no flash flood risk for
this area.

...Southeast Florida...

Northeasterly onshore flow with high PWATs up to 2 inches will
continue across Southeast Florida as the mid-level low remains
stalled near the Bahamas. Eventually, the low will be absorbed by
another wave moving north over Cuba, then move northeast into the
Atlantic later this week. Meanwhile, the system will become weaker
and less organized and precipitation coverage and intensity should
decrease. Even so, scattered showers will move onshore in Southeast
Florida throughout the day on Monday, and locally heavy rainfall
will be possible. Given heavy rainfall expected on Sunday, a
Marginal Risk area was continued for Southeast Florida where there
could be isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in urban
areas.

Dolan


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...

...21Z update...

The latest models maintained a limited/isolated and likely urban
threat for heavy rainfall/flash flooding across southeastern FL on
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The threat was driven largely by the
QPF placement seen in the 12Z AIGFS and 06Z ECAIFS along with low
probabilities for 2+ inches of rain over the 24 hour period from
the 12Z CMC and 00Z ECMWF ensembles. Forecast instability profiles
show a gradient in CAPE along the southeastern FL coast with
higher values (500 to 1000+ J/kg) offshore, and little to no CAPE
for inland locations. Additional decals on the forecast can bee
seen in the previous discussion below.

Otto

...previous discussion follows...

...Southeast Florida...

Northeasterly flow will continue across the Florida Peninsula,
with scattered showers and storms forming over the Atlantic and
moving onshore in Southeast Florida. Model guidance shows a surge
in moisture across Central and South Florida on Tuesday, with PWATs
exceeding 2 inches. This will likely support locally heavy
rainfall along the Southeast Florida coast as showers move onshore.
Isolated flash flooding could be possible in urban areas,
especially considering the previous days of heavy rainfall, so a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall was introduced for portions of
Southeast Florida.

Dolan

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Day 4 and Day 5
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 30 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

20Z Update...

While there remains a fair amount of spread in the latest
deterministic guidance, the Slight Risk introduced overnight still
falls near the midst of the guidance envelope, and close to the AI
guidance and higher probabilities for heavier amounts. Therefore,
the previous outlook was left unchanged.

Pereira

Previous discussion...

A Slight risk has been introduced on day 5 (Thu) across portions
of TX, stretching from the Stockton Plateau through parts of the
western Hill Country and into south-central TX. Large scale forcing
for ascent will be driven in part by a strong southern stream
upper jet providing divergence aloft. Embedded shortwave energy
will also eject out of the East Pacific within the deep
southwesterly flow aloft, with some potential moisture and
vorticity contribution from what is currently tropical cyclone
Vance. Mid to upper level moisture sourced from the East Pacific
will combine with a strong southeasterly low level jet bringing
moisture out of the Gulf. This combination will drive PW values
well above the climatological 90th percentile for late October.

The environmental ingredients in place will support an organized
heavy rainfall event. As expected at a day 5 lead time, exact spatial
and temporal details will change some as the event nears. However
there is enough run to run consistency and model clustering...both
among physics based and AI guidance (with preference given to the
AIFS, AIGFS and ECMWF model suites)...to justify going straight to
a day 5 Slight risk. While adjustments to the risk area are
probable in subsequent updates as model guidance evolves/converges,
the currently outlined corridor represents the area of highest
probabilities at this time. We will continue to closely monitor
trends, as certainly some chance for locally significant flood
impacts from this event.

Surrounding the Slight risk, a broader Marginal risk extends
westward across West TX and into southern NM. While this region is
currently forecast to reside west of the primary heavy rainfall
axis, elevated hydrologic sensitivity exists over some of this area
from recent rainfall. Some uptick in moisture and instability is
forecast which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered
convection and localized flash flooding.

Chenard

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Day 4 and Day 5
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 30 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

20Z Update...

While there remains a fair amount of spread in the latest
deterministic guidance, the Slight Risk introduced overnight still
falls near the midst of the guidance envelope, and close to the AI
guidance and higher probabilities for heavier amounts. Therefore,
the previous outlook was left unchanged.

Pereira

Previous discussion...

A Slight risk has been introduced on day 5 (Thu) across portions
of TX, stretching from the Stockton Plateau through parts of the
western Hill Country and into south-central TX. Large scale forcing
for ascent will be driven in part by a strong southern stream
upper jet providing divergence aloft. Embedded shortwave energy
will also eject out of the East Pacific within the deep
southwesterly flow aloft, with some potential moisture and
vorticity contribution from what is currently tropical cyclone
Vance. Mid to upper level moisture sourced from the East Pacific
will combine with a strong southeasterly low level jet bringing
moisture out of the Gulf. This combination will drive PW values
well above the climatological 90th percentile for late October.

The environmental ingredients in place will support an organized
heavy rainfall event. As expected at a day 5 lead time, exact spatial
and temporal details will change some as the event nears. However
there is enough run to run consistency and model clustering...both
among physics based and AI guidance (with preference given to the
AIFS, AIGFS and ECMWF model suites)...to justify going straight to
a day 5 Slight risk. While adjustments to the risk area are
probable in subsequent updates as model guidance evolves/converges,
the currently outlined corridor represents the area of highest
probabilities at this time. We will continue to closely monitor
trends, as certainly some chance for locally significant flood
impacts from this event.

Surrounding the Slight risk, a broader Marginal risk extends
westward across West TX and into southern NM. While this region is
currently forecast to reside west of the primary heavy rainfall
axis, elevated hydrologic sensitivity exists over some of this area
from recent rainfall. Some uptick in moisture and instability is
forecast which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered
convection and localized flash flooding.

Chenard

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 26 2026 - 00Z Thu Oct 29 2026

...Colorado...
Day 1...

Exiting upper low moving through Colorado tonight will bring an
additional few inches to elevations above 9000ft before ending by
12Z Monday.


...Northern Plains...
Days 1-2...

As the upper low over Colorado weakens to a trough overnight, a
surface low will track across Kansas and eastern Nebraska Monday
with enough comma head precip expansion to have some snow bands on
the northwest side of the precip shield. This should intersect with
the Black Hills Monday along with dynamic enough banding for some
snow accumulation in northwestern South Dakota and south-central
North Dakota. Temperatures are marginal, and the trend was been a
bit slower such that most snow would fall between 18-00Z when it is
less likely to stick. However, any snow that falls before sunrise
or after sunset Monday would have a better chance of accumulating.
Most likely forecast is for a broad swath of T-0.5" snow with some
potential for an axis of 1-2" from the Black Hills northeastward.
WPC probabilities of at least 4 inches of snow are about 10% in
over parts of central SD and around 20-40% for at least 2" of snow.


...Cascades and Northern Rockies...
Days 1-3...

A modestly robust upper low just west of the WA coast this evening
will move inland into the northern Great Basin on Monday with
trailing/reinforcing shortwave troughs maintaining low pressure
over the Northwest states for much of the week. Higher snow levels
above 5000-8000ft ahead of the initial upper low Monday will lower
to 4000-5500ft or so by Wednesday as another stronger upper low
dips in from the BC coast, which could push snow levels to around
3500ft over the WA Cascades. WPC probabilities for at least 8
inches of snow over the next three days are >50% above about
5000-6000ft from north to south along the Cascades from WA to OR,
and about 5000ft over Idaho and western MT. Over northwestern WY,
snow levels will be higher and significant snow will be above
9000ft.

By Wednesday, snow will likely start to fall at some of the pass
levels including Washington, Stevens, and also Snoqualmie Passes.
The probability of at least 2 inches of snow at Snoqualmie Pass
through 00Z Thu is about 70%.


For Days 1-3, the probability of significant ice across the CONUS
is less than 10 percent.


Fracasso

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 01 2026


...Overview...

An upper low will meander atop British Columbia and the
northwestern U.S. mid to late week, while shortwaves farther south
serve to deepen the trough across the West. Precipitation looks to
focus across the Northwest Wednesday-Thursday, and meanwhile
tropical moisture will spread into south-central Texas for
potentially heavy rainfall. Downstream upper ridging will allow for
warmer than average temperatures to spread across much of the
eastern half of the U.S. through the week. Rounds of light to
moderate rain are possible in the Midwest to Northeast as
shortwaves traverse north of the ridge. Then by late week,
combining systems and the deepening western trough should bring
more widespread precipitation to the Intermountain West and
broadening in the central U.S. into next weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models maintain very good synoptic scale agreement through at
least Friday, including their depictions of an upper low slowly
drifting from British Columbia into the Northwest, deepening
troughing overall in the West, and downstream mean ridging. A
multi-model blend of the dynamical and AI individual guidance
worked well to depict the pattern.

More notable differences within the large scale pattern start to
arise next weekend as model solutions diverge with the evolution of
the trough in the West. Solutions range from a more consolidated
upper low that slowly drifts southward along the West Coast (as
depicted by the 00Z EC and EC-AIFS) to a more elongated and strung
out trough driven by multiple embedded waves and southern stream
enhancement (like the more recent runs of the GFS and AI-GFS). The
latest 12Z guidance has trended more towards the elongated
evolution for Saturday, but shows many different/possible outcomes
for Sunday. So while increasing troughing across the West is still
a safe bet for next weekend, there is still considerable
uncertainty with the finer details... which will of course have
impacts to temperatures, QPF, etc. To mitigate these differences,
40 to 50 percent of the blend was anchored by ensemble means which
offered a reasonable middle ground approach for now.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Rain and higher elevation snow are forecast for the Pacific
Northwest across the northern Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday-
Thursday with the persistent upper trough. Shortwaves in the
northern tier will also support rounds of rain and possible
thunderstorms in the Midwest. Farther south, rain and thunderstorms
are forecast for the southern Plains, ramping up by Thursday as
moisture from current Hurricane Vance streams in and produces
potentially heavy rain in the Edwards Plateau/south-central Texas.
Into late week, deepening upper troughing across the West with
Pacific and Gulf moisture inflow will lead to broadening
precipitation coverage for much of the West and increasing for the
central to east-central U.S. by next weekend. The details of where
precipitation occurs and could be moderate/heavy are dependent on
the uncertain upper-level flow, so expect changing forecast
details. Additionally, persistent easterly flow across Florida will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to at least its east
coast.

Well above average temperatures are expected for portions of the
central and eastern U.S. from day to day under mean upper ridging.
Highs in the 70s are forecast as far north as the Upper Great Lakes
region, with 80s reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley, broadly
around 15-20 degrees above normal. Temperatures should be slightly
below average in the western U.S., especially for highs.


Tate/Miller


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw