Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 00Z Fri Feb 06 2026

...A low pressure system will produce rain and thunderstorms in the
Southeast, and light wintry precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic...

...A frontal system is expected to bring light snow and wintry
precipitation to the Northern Plains mid-week, while the Great Lakes
experience heavier snow on Thursday...

...Warmer-than-average temperatures are set to continue for the western
half of the United States, particularly in the Northern Plains...

A low pressure system originating in the Southern Plains is expected to
continue its eastward progression, moving into the Southeast by this
evening. Low-level southwesterly flow will aid in the movement of moisture
from the Gulf into the Southeast, supporting showers and thunderstorms
today and Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorms will continue in the Lower
Mississippi Valley through the overnight hours tonight, before entering
the Tennessee Valley and Southeast early on Wednesday morning. Meanwhile,
the arrival of an arctic air mass will drive colder air into the
Mid-Atlantic, and snow and wintry precipitation are expected tonight into
Wednesday. With little moisture availability expected in the Mid-Atlantic,
along with a relatively quick progression of the system through the
region, little to no accumulation of snow is expected.

In the Northern Plains, a dissipating surface frontal system will move
through the Dakotas into the early morning hours of Wednesday, bringing
light wintry precipitation into Wednesday morning. Further east, localized
Lake Effect snow is anticipated to continue through Wednesday in parts of
the Northeast, especially upstate New York, as a cold front moves
eastward. After a brief reprieve in the Great Lakes on Wednesday,
widespread snow will return on Thursday, particularly throughout parts of
Wisconsin and Michigan, as another frontal system moves through. To end
the week, this front is expected to dive southeastward, bringing another
period of colder-than-average temperatures to the eastern United States.

Further west, calm conditions and above average temperatures will move
through on Wednesday, particularly in the Northern Plains, as downsloping
winds move in from the Northern Rockies following the departure of the
aforementioned frontal system. These unseasonably warm conditions will
then persist for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Above
average temperatures and calm conditions are also expected to continue for
most of the western half of the United States through the rest of the week.

Blanco-Alcala


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
151 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026


***Renewed surge of arctic air expected for the East Coast by the
weekend with impressive stretch of cold weather continuing***


...General Overview...

A potent shortwave trough and strong cold front will cross the
Great Lakes and then the Northeast to close out the work week, and
thus reinforcing the anomalously cold airmass in place for much of
the Eastern U.S. for the weekend, with another arctic surface high
dropping southward behind the cold front. Out West, a large upper
ridge will be in place across the Intermountain West for the end of
the week, but this is expected to slowly break down by Saturday as
shortwave energy from the Pacific reaches Washington and Oregon.
This will eventually result in a slightly more zonal upper flow
pattern by the end of the forecast period, with broad troughing
remaining near the East Coast and a broad ridge axis over the
Plains, with above normal temperatures here and remaining below
normal for the East Coast states with some moderation by Tuesday.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models are in reasonably good agreement regarding the synoptic
pattern evolution across the Eastern United States during the
medium range period. There continues to be uncertainty regarding
the timing and intensity of a southern stream trough beginning this
weekend. The GFS suite and ECAIFS deviate from the rest of the
guidance by making this system quasi-stationary over Baja into
early next week, while other guidance ejects it out over the
Southern Plains by then.

A general model blend consisting of the 00z EC/CMC/UKMET/ECAIFS and
06z GFS were used in the day 3 blend with equal weighting. The
GEFS was introduced into the blend on day 4 and replaces the GFS by
day 5. The Euro, Canadian ensemble mean and ECENS were used on day
6. The GEFS was reintegrated into the blend on day 7, with
ensemble means favored and deterministic Euro included for
shortwave details over the Southern Plains.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Light to moderate snows can be expected from the northern Great
Lakes to the central/northern Appalachians as the clipper system
moves through the region on Friday. There will likely be some snow
squalls that accompany the passage of the arctic front, with
severely reduced visibility and heavier snowfall rates for brief
periods of time. More substantial rain and mountain snow makes a
return to the Pacific Northwest by next weekend as the upper ridge
breaks down and allows Pacific moisture to move inland, bringing
moderate to locally heavy precipitation to the Cascades, and
lighter precipitation across the northern Rockies. Some of this
rain/snow could reach into northern California by Sunday. However,
no excessive rainfall areas will be needed for both the Day
4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday outlooks given recent dry conditions
and lack of widespread higher QPF totals.

Temperatures will continue to be uncomfortably cold for most areas
east of the Mississippi River through next weekend. There may be a
slight warm-up closer to early February averages on Friday, but a
harsh return to reality is coming by Saturday in the wake of a
reinforcing arctic cold front after the clipper system passes by.
Daytime highs could be on the order of 15 to 25 degrees below
normal from the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, and
overnight lows up to 20 degrees below normal Sunday morning along
the Interstate 95 corridor from Philadelphia to Maine. Some record
low maximums are possible on Saturday and perhaps into Sunday. The
frigid conditions should slowly moderate going into early next
week.

A dichotomy will exist with well above average temperatures across
a large expanse of the western U.S. and then extending eastward to
include the western High Plains. The greatest anomalies should be
across Montana, Wyoming, and the western Dakotas where highs could
be 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

Kebede/Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Valid 00Z Wed 04 Feb 2026 - 00Z Wed 11 Feb 2026

...Potential for Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding over the
Western and Central Islands This Weekend into Early Next Week..

As has been advertised, the upper-level pattern across the Central
Pacific will undergo significant amplification heading into this
weekend. By Sunday, the global guidance is fairly well clustered
with the positively tilted upper trough along or just west of the
western islands. Into early next week, the upper trough shifts
very little, though by Sunday night and Monday, despite some
timing differences, all the 00Z global models (operational runs)
show a low closing off at 500 mb low southwest of the islands.

The pattern shift begins on Friday, as the new frontal system
approaches from the northwest. Increasing pre-frontal
southwesterly (Kona) winds will bring an increase in humidity and
cloud cover to the western and central islands Friday and Friday
night, as the axis of higher PWATs (1.7-1.8 inches) and pre-
frontal shower bands are likely to reach Kauai and Niihau by
Friday evening.

From Saturday through Tuesday, the setup favors a prolonged
period of more humid conditions as deep tropical moisture is
transported northward into the stalled surface boundary
downstream of the cutoff low, with persistent difluence at upper
levels and PWATs exceeding 1.7 inches. Highest confidence of more
widespread, heavier showers (highest PoPs) will be across the
western and central islands (Kauai, Niihau, and Oahu), where
repeated rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms may result in
areas of flash flooding. Meanwhile, the rainfall coverage across
the eastern islands will mostly confined across the favored
upslope regions.



Hurley

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Feb 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 05 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Kleebauer


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 05 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 06 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Kleebauer

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026


Light to moderate snows can be expected from the northern Great
Lakes to the central/northern Appalachians as the clipper system
moves through the region on Friday. There will likely be some snow
squalls that accompany the passage of the arctic front, with
severely reduced visibility and heavier snowfall rates for brief
periods of time. More substantial rain and mountain snow makes a
return to the Pacific Northwest by next weekend as the upper ridge
breaks down and allows Pacific moisture to move inland, bringing
moderate to locally heavy precipitation to the Cascades, and
lighter precipitation across the northern Rockies. Some of this
rain/snow could reach into northern California by Sunday. However,
no excessive rainfall areas will be needed for both the Day
4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday outlooks given recent dry conditions
and lack of widespread higher QPF totals.

Temperatures will continue to be uncomfortably cold for most areas
east of the Mississippi River through next weekend. There may be a
slight warm-up closer to early February averages on Friday, but a
harsh return to reality is coming by Saturday in the wake of a
reinforcing arctic cold front after the clipper system passes by.
Daytime highs could be on the order of 15 to 25 degrees below
normal from the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, and
overnight lows up to 20 degrees below normal Sunday morning along
the Interstate 95 corridor from Philadelphia to Maine. Some record
low maximums are possible on Saturday and perhaps into Sunday. The
frigid conditions should slowly moderate going into early next
week.

A dichotomy will exist with well above average temperatures across
a large expanse of the western U.S. and then extending eastward to
include the western High Plains. The greatest anomalies should be
across Montana, Wyoming, and the western Dakotas where highs could
be 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

Hamrick

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026


Light to moderate snows can be expected from the northern Great
Lakes to the central/northern Appalachians as the clipper system
moves through the region on Friday. There will likely be some snow
squalls that accompany the passage of the arctic front, with
severely reduced visibility and heavier snowfall rates for brief
periods of time. More substantial rain and mountain snow makes a
return to the Pacific Northwest by next weekend as the upper ridge
breaks down and allows Pacific moisture to move inland, bringing
moderate to locally heavy precipitation to the Cascades, and
lighter precipitation across the northern Rockies. Some of this
rain/snow could reach into northern California by Sunday. However,
no excessive rainfall areas will be needed for both the Day
4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday outlooks given recent dry conditions
and lack of widespread higher QPF totals.

Temperatures will continue to be uncomfortably cold for most areas
east of the Mississippi River through next weekend. There may be a
slight warm-up closer to early February averages on Friday, but a
harsh return to reality is coming by Saturday in the wake of a
reinforcing arctic cold front after the clipper system passes by.
Daytime highs could be on the order of 15 to 25 degrees below
normal from the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, and
overnight lows up to 20 degrees below normal Sunday morning along
the Interstate 95 corridor from Philadelphia to Maine. Some record
low maximums are possible on Saturday and perhaps into Sunday. The
frigid conditions should slowly moderate going into early next
week.

A dichotomy will exist with well above average temperatures across
a large expanse of the western U.S. and then extending eastward to
include the western High Plains. The greatest anomalies should be
across Montana, Wyoming, and the western Dakotas where highs could
be 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

Hamrick

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 00Z Sat Feb 07 2026


...Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas...
Days 1-2...

Increasing moisture and warm air advection ahead of a weak surface
low over the Mid South combined with large-scale forcing for
ascent within the left exit region of a strengthening 100kt+ upper
level jet streak will yield a swath of snow from eastern KY
eastward
to the central Appalachians tonight into early Wednesday. Amounts
will be light (Minor impacts per the WSSI) and WPC probabilities
for snowfall >2" are 30-60% mainly across the higher elevations of
WV and southwest VA.

Some light snow should also crest the central Appalachians into
parts of the Mid-Atlantic late tonight into Wednesday morning, but
this can sometimes dry up east of I-81. WPC probabilities for 1"
of snow are generally <15% along the I-66/Rt 50 corridor across
northern VA, DC, MD, and into DE. Still, any snow combined with the
recent cold could be enough to cause localized travel concerns,
particularly during the Wednesday morning commute.

As the front continues southeastward, trailing shortwave energy may
slow the southern portion of the front over the Southeast, allowing
another weak area of low pressure to form over the southern
Appalachians on Wednesday. As the low moves slowly through GA/SC
Wednesday evening and off the coast early Thursday, moisture will
linger over southern VA and much of northern/western NC where
temperatures are marginally supportive of snow. During the
overnight hours, dynamic cooling could support some light
accumulations around an inch or so across southern VA and northern
NC, especially across the higher elevations of southwestern VA and
northwest NC where WPC probabilities of >2" of snow are 20-40%.

In the wake of the departing low pressure system, lingering low-
level upslope moisture combined with mid-level drying may lead to a
period of freezing drizzle across parts of eastern KY, southwest
VA, eastern TN, and western NC late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Anywhere the freezing drizzle is more persistent could produce a
light glaze of ice. Additionally, enough northerly component of the
wind could drain some sub-freezing boundary layer air into far
southeastern VA and eastern NC, supporting light icing of around
0.05" or so later Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
While any ice is hazardous, the icing noted above could be more
problematic than usual due to the recent winter storm(s).


...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic...
Day 3...

A 140kt upper level jet over south central Canada Thursday will
help push a warm front through the western Great Lakes, followed by
a strong Arctic cold front that will dive to the south and east
across
the region through the day on Friday. The left exit region of this
jet combined with a potent vort max will increasingly support
large scale forcing for ascent, with weak surface low development
possible downstream of the western Great Lakes. This will support
widespread snow showers and the potential for snow squalls from
MI and western NY to OH, PA, and WV starting late Thursday night
and continuing through the day on Friday. Some of the stronger
showers and squalls are looking increasingly likely to spill over
the central Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic later in
the afternoon, possibly impacting the evening commute. WPC
probabilities for >2" of snow are 40-70% across parts of MI,
northeast OH, northwest PA, and the higher elevations of southwest
PA and WV. Probabilities for >4" of snow are 10-20% for portions of
the U.P. of MI, northeast OH, and WV.

In the wake of the Arctic front, a blast of bitterly cold air will
encompass much of the Northeast heading into the weekend. For more
details, please reference the Extreme Cold Key Messages in the link
provided below.


Miller/Fracasso


...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key
Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
151 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026


***Renewed surge of arctic air expected for the East Coast by the
weekend with impressive stretch of cold weather continuing***


...General Overview...

A potent shortwave trough and strong cold front will cross the
Great Lakes and then the Northeast to close out the work week, and
thus reinforcing the anomalously cold airmass in place for much of
the Eastern U.S. for the weekend, with another arctic surface high
dropping southward behind the cold front. Out West, a large upper
ridge will be in place across the Intermountain West for the end of
the week, but this is expected to slowly break down by Saturday as
shortwave energy from the Pacific reaches Washington and Oregon.
This will eventually result in a slightly more zonal upper flow
pattern by the end of the forecast period, with broad troughing
remaining near the East Coast and a broad ridge axis over the
Plains, with above normal temperatures here and remaining below
normal for the East Coast states with some moderation by Tuesday.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models are in reasonably good agreement regarding the synoptic
pattern evolution across the Eastern United States during the
medium range period. There continues to be uncertainty regarding
the timing and intensity of a southern stream trough beginning this
weekend. The GFS suite and ECAIFS deviate from the rest of the
guidance by making this system quasi-stationary over Baja into
early next week, while other guidance ejects it out over the
Southern Plains by then.

A general model blend consisting of the 00z EC/CMC/UKMET/ECAIFS and
06z GFS were used in the day 3 blend with equal weighting. The
GEFS was introduced into the blend on day 4 and replaces the GFS by
day 5. The Euro, Canadian ensemble mean and ECENS were used on day
6. The GEFS was reintegrated into the blend on day 7, with
ensemble means favored and deterministic Euro included for
shortwave details over the Southern Plains.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Light to moderate snows can be expected from the northern Great
Lakes to the central/northern Appalachians as the clipper system
moves through the region on Friday. There will likely be some snow
squalls that accompany the passage of the arctic front, with
severely reduced visibility and heavier snowfall rates for brief
periods of time. More substantial rain and mountain snow makes a
return to the Pacific Northwest by next weekend as the upper ridge
breaks down and allows Pacific moisture to move inland, bringing
moderate to locally heavy precipitation to the Cascades, and
lighter precipitation across the northern Rockies. Some of this
rain/snow could reach into northern California by Sunday. However,
no excessive rainfall areas will be needed for both the Day
4/Friday and Day 5/Saturday outlooks given recent dry conditions
and lack of widespread higher QPF totals.

Temperatures will continue to be uncomfortably cold for most areas
east of the Mississippi River through next weekend. There may be a
slight warm-up closer to early February averages on Friday, but a
harsh return to reality is coming by Saturday in the wake of a
reinforcing arctic cold front after the clipper system passes by.
Daytime highs could be on the order of 15 to 25 degrees below
normal from the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, and
overnight lows up to 20 degrees below normal Sunday morning along
the Interstate 95 corridor from Philadelphia to Maine. Some record
low maximums are possible on Saturday and perhaps into Sunday. The
frigid conditions should slowly moderate going into early next
week.

A dichotomy will exist with well above average temperatures across
a large expanse of the western U.S. and then extending eastward to
include the western High Plains. The greatest anomalies should be
across Montana, Wyoming, and the western Dakotas where highs could
be 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

Kebede/Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw