Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 05 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of Eastern Texas on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Thursday and expanding into parts of the Southern Rockies
on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains and Lower Great Lakes,
Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians,
and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...

The remnants of Tropical Depression EDOUARD, which moved inland over
Eastern Texas, are forecast to move northward into Northeastern Texas and
dissipate by Thursday evening. EDOUARD will produce heavy rain over parts
of Eastern Texas on Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts
of Eastern Texas on Thursday. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of excessive rainfall will drop to a Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
on Friday and continue over most of the Gulf Coast. In addition,
upper-level impulses along the Gulf Coast will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast Coast and along the Gulf Coast
through Saturday.

Also on Thursday, a front will move eastward into the Northeast and move
out over the ocean by Friday. The system will produce moderate rain over
parts of the Northeast /Great Lakes into the Northern Plains on Thursday.
Severe thunderstorms will also develop over the area on Thursday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley and into
parts of the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday into Friday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, a second
area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Likewise, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains /Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday into Friday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Friday, the showers and severe thunderstorms will continue over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Friday into
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

The showers and severe thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Ohio
Valley into parts of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley and
continue over parts of the region through Saturday.

Monsoonal moisture will increase over parts of the Southwest, producing
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over parts of the Southwest on Thursday and Friday. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable. The showers and thunderstorms will continue over the region
into Saturday. Additionally, some moisture will move into Southern
California early Saturday morning, producing rain over the area.

Elsewhere, a front over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday will move
eastward into the Northern High Plains and parts of the Great Basin by
Saturday. The system will produce rain over the Northwest on Thursday into
Friday. Rain and embedded thunderstorms will also develop over the
Northern Intermountain Region through Friday and reduce to showers over
the region by Saturday. Lastly, heat will build over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley, the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the Mid-Atlantic into
Saturday. In response, Heat Advisories have been posted over the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 06 2026 - 12Z Thu Sep 10 2026


...Dangerous late-summer heat continues from the central/southern
Plains to the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley into next week...

...Overview...

A strong upper ridge will continue to be the focus for a long-
lasting heat wave across the south-central U.S. while a slow-moving
upper low will keep much of the western U.S. cooler than normal
into next week. Meanwhile, monsoonal and glancing tropical moisture
may lead to briefly heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding
Sunday into Monday across parts of the Southwest. Heavy rainfall
potential may also increase across the north-central U.S. early
next week as a strengthening low pressure system moves across the
region.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models remain in good overall agreement to start the medium range
period with continued troughing across the western U.S. and eastern
U.S. with strong ridging in between. Towards the middle of next
week, models favor the trough/upper low over the Pacific Northwest
to eject eastward into the northern Plains and south-central
Canada, leading to surface cyclogenesis just north of the
U.S./Canada border while also suppressing and expanding the central
U.S. ridge farther to the south and east. There remains some
questions as to the degree of troughing that lingers downstream
over the eastern U.S. as this all occurs, but current consensus
seems to favor rising heights and more zonal flow over the
Northeast. Upstream, models are advertising another trough/upper
low developing along or just off the West Coast by Wednesday and
Thursday as more energy digs into the eastern Pacific.

Some uncertainty remains with the precipitation forecast across
southern California and parts of the Southwest and Intermountain
West Sunday into Monday as the degree of influence from tropical
moisture remains in question. Models generally agree with a more
westward track of Hurricane Marie, losing most of the last
remaining bit of support for a more northerly track towards
southern California. However, despite a more westerly track, models
do still suggest at least some glancing tropical moisture
associated with Marie may get drawn up into the monsoonal plume
late this weekend into early next week. What models don't yet agree
on is just how much of that moisture will translate to significant
precipitation, as some are fairly wet and others nearly completely
dry. Given the uncertainty and a recent drier trend, decided to
keep the forecast more conservative for now. This allows for a
lower end PoPs and precipitation amounts but with the caveat that
locally heavier and more widespread amounts are not completely
ruled out.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

An unrelenting and intense late-summer heat wave will continue to
bring extremely hot temperatures to much of the central/southern
Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into
next week. High temperatures well into the 90s and low 100s
combined with high humidity and very warm overnight lows in the mid
70s will result in widespread areas of Major to Extreme HeatRisk
and a concern for heat-related illnesses. See WPC's Key Messages
for more details. Meanwhile, cooler temperatures and lower humidity
in the wake of a seasonably strong cold front will continue to
settle into parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast
heading into Labor Day. Cooler than normal temperatures will also
persist for much of the western U.S. into early next week as
unsettled weather associated with a slow-moving upper low lingers
over the region.

In between the upper low across the Pacific Northwest and the
strong ridge over the central U.S., southwesterly flow will draw
monsoonal moisture into parts of the Southwest and Intermountain
West this weekend into early next week. There may be a brief and
glancing tropical enhancement to the monsoonal moisture courtesy of
Hurricane Marie prior to tracking farther out to sea, which could
lead to a low but non-zero flash flooding threat with any showers
and thunderstorms that develop. With that being said, there still
remains a fair amount of spread between forecast precipitation
amounts, and recent trends have been drier. As a result, a more
conservative forecast approach is prudent until details become
clearer in the coming days.

The potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall is becoming more likely for parts of the
northern Rockies, northern Plains and Upper Midwest late this
weekend into early next week as a low pressure system moves
northeast across the region. A severe weather threat is also
becoming more likely across portions of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest thanks to increasing moisture and instability ahead
of this strengthening storm system.


Miller


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Valid 00Z Fri 04 Sep 2026 - 00Z Fri 11 Sep 2026

Gusty trade winds continue for the next day or so thanks to a
tight pressure gradient in between a strong ridge to the north and
Major Hurricane Lowell passing by to the south. Daily showers are
expected across the island chain but these will mostly be
confined to the typical windward and mauka areas, especially at
night. The strong and gusty trade wind pattern eventually will
become disrupted later Friday into Saturday as Hurricane Karina
passes to the northeast of the islands this weekend. Lighter winds
will then prevail through most of the weekend.

The forecast becomes much more uncertain next week as both Lowell
and Karina will both be lingering across the central Pacific.
While direct impacts from either storm are still low, model
guidance continues to show an upper low potentially interacting
with both storms. Depending on the evolution of this upper low,
and how much interaction occurs, either storm could threaten to
move closer to the island chain. This is especially the case for
Lowell, which is forecast to make a sharp turn to the north after
moving westward south of the state. When and where that northward
turn takes place will likely determine the degree of potential
impacts to Hawaii from the storm. Details will become more clear
in the coming days, so stay tuned to the forecast and please refer
to the National Hurricane Center for more information regarding
the forecast track and intensity of Lowell and Karina.

Miller

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Sep 03 2026 - 12Z Thu Sep 03 2026

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...East Texas...
A High risk remains for a small area of southeast TX, primarily
across the Big Thicket into the Piney Woods region, where ongoing
heavy rain south of Edouard remnants is over areas most impacted
this morning. The center of Edouard is slowly shifting north, but
inflow is still converging over similar areas as earlier today as the
center received less convergent focus. This southern area should
run its course/diminish overnight with potential new development
farther north per recent CAMs. However, inflow from the Gulf will
allow some additional convection over the areas hardest hit today
into Thursday. Minimal changes to the existing outlook areas
including the High Risk which were well placed. Please see latest
MPD (soon to be 1178) in east Texas for further information.

...Eastern Great Lakes into Mid-Atlantic & New England...

Low over central Quebec will continue to deepen and drift east
tonight. Warm sector convective line progressing through western NY
may have some followup activity overnight with some activity ahead
warranting a larger Slight Risk over western NY and central PA.
Trimmed the Marginal Risk a bit over New England based on the 18Z
HREF while expanded over the Shenandoah Valley and southern MI for
ongoing activity. Please see MPD 1177 for further details on NY/PA.

...Florida...

Ongoing activity has consolidated south of Tampa Bay and should
continue a downward trend this evening. The Marginal Risk was
shrunk.

...Arizona...

Earlier monsoonal activity over southern has waned with a fair
amount of convective inhibition present. Removed the Marginal Risk.

Jackson


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 03 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 04 2026

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS...

20z Update: Upgraded to a Slight and Moderate risk for portions of
east TX. An axis of training convection should be ongoing at 12z
Thursday to the south and Southeast of the remnant circulation of
Edouard. Given the system will be weaker by this time, we are not
expecting the flash flood threat to be as extreme as what occurred
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. However, the low level vort
center should be defined enough to focus another round of nocturnal
training/backbuilding convection by later Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. This activity should persist past 12z and into
this day 2 period...but should weaken towards 15z. The MDT risk may
be able to be removed with the 16z update tomorrow, but the
expectation is for a locally significant flash flood risk to be
ongoing to start the period Thursday morning. Some models indicate
another possible uptick Thursday night into Friday morning, but
this is lower confidence given more uncertainty regarding the state
of the remnant vort center by this time.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

...Southwest...

A Slight Risk remains in effect across southern Arizona and into
New Mexico for this period. An uptick in moisture should result in
increased convective coverage and a scattered flash flood risk.
This region will continue to be monitored over the coming days.

...Texas, Gulf Coast and Florida...

The remnant vort center of Edouard should be less defined by this
time, but still present over east Texas with lingering tropical
rain over sensitive soils. It could still help focus some
organized convective clusters, and thus an isolated flash flood
risk could linger into Thursday. Elsewhere onshore flow within the
pooled high PW values and stalled boundary could trigger convection
along the coastline and across the Florida Peninsula leading to
isolated areas of flash flooding/ponding. A Marginal Risk spans
from eastern Texas to Florida.

...Upper Midwest to Mid-Atlantic...

While the details on where the heaviest rain will occur there
continues to be a signal for one or more rounds of organized
convection to track trough portions of this area through the day
into Thursday night. Parts of this region have had recent rains to
lower FFG and increase sensitivity to additional heavy rainfall. A
Marginal Risk was maintained from Minnesota/Iowa to Del-Mar-VA and
New Jersey.

...California into the Intermountain West...

A Marginal Risk continues from northern California into Idaho.
During this period a strong synoptic system will bring an axis of
heavy rainfall to the region. Not much instability, but just enough
showing up in model forecasts to suggest some potential for
localized higher rates and an isolated flash flood potential.

Campbell/Chenard


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 04 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...

20z Update:
The Slight risk over the Southwest was realigned based on model
trends. The better moisture/instability axis is forecast farther
east than previously forecast, with the Slight risk shifting in
that direction as well. Still seeing a decent convective signal in
the guidance, including the 12z RRFS, over this Slight risk area,
and thus isolated to scattered flash flooding is expected.

A Marginal risk was added from southeast TX, along the Gulf Coast
and into FL. Lingering moisture and instability along this
corridor could result in a continued localized flash flood risk.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

...Northwest/Northern Rockies...

Marginal Risk area is in effect across portions of the interior
Northwest, particularly the area surrounding the northern Idaho
Panhandle. This area will be much closer to the upper level trough,
so forcing should be much better than in the Southwest. However,
moisture and instability will be much lower, resulting in more
likelihood of stratiform rainfall. Despite this, the rainfall
should still have modest amounts of instability to work with in a
generally dry, and therefore flash flood prone, area of the
country.

...Southwest/Four Corners/Central-Southern Rockies...

The signal for the return of heavy rain areas across the Southwest
into the Four Corners and central-southern Rockies remains strong
GEFS and ECENS PWAT anomalies increase back to 2-2.5 standard
deviations above normal with the axis of best monsoonal moisture
influx shifting slightly west. Still remains to be seen how much
influence the eventual tropical system that ultimately pulls west
of Baja will have in terms of the upper level moisture (potential
uptick in the PW anomaly). A Slight Risk was maintained for Arizona
while a broad Marginal covers southeast California the Four Corner.

...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...

Expect more additional organized/widespread convection downwind
of the upper ridge axis. Precipitable water values are high enough
with sufficient instability that embedded cells could produce
local downpours and isolated flooding. This will likely start over
eastern portions of the Upper Midwest, where the upper jet streak
to the northeast is expected to strengthen as the pivoting northern
stream trough impinges on the broad-scale ridge to the south. Have
essentially traced the Marginal Risk area southeast along the mean
850-300 mb thickness fields, where the upper level forcing
along/ahead of the surface front will be most supportive of more
organized activity. A Marginal Risk is in effect from Wisconsin to
West Virginia.

Campbell/Hurley

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Sep 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST...

A deep upper low persists over the Pacific Northwest through
Saturday before shifting south to far northern California for
Sunday. The trough around this low and a strong upper high
centered over the southern Plains U.S. will direct southwesterly
flow into the Desert Southwest and mover much of the Intermountain
West on Sunday. Confidence has increased on a more southward
suppressed moisture and instability axis that extends farther east
from southern California through central New Mexico. The Day 4
Marginal Risk is trimmed from Utah and expanded east through the
Sangre de Cristo/Sacramento Mtns. That said, a connection to a
tropical moisture plume from Marie is present, so this area will
continue to be closely monitored.

The farther south closed low into far northern CA on Sunday should
direct tropically sourced moisture up through the Intermountain
West to the central Rockies. The Day 5 Marginal Risk is expanded
farther east through western Colorado and New Mexico. Moisture may
end up lifting farther north and some 12Z guidance has decent QPF
in Montana, so please monitor future updates.

Jackson

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Sep 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST...

A deep upper low persists over the Pacific Northwest through
Saturday before shifting south to far northern California for
Sunday. The trough around this low and a strong upper high
centered over the southern Plains U.S. will direct southwesterly
flow into the Desert Southwest and mover much of the Intermountain
West on Sunday. Confidence has increased on a more southward
suppressed moisture and instability axis that extends farther east
from southern California through central New Mexico. The Day 4
Marginal Risk is trimmed from Utah and expanded east through the
Sangre de Cristo/Sacramento Mtns. That said, a connection to a
tropical moisture plume from Marie is present, so this area will
continue to be closely monitored.

The farther south closed low into far northern CA on Sunday should
direct tropically sourced moisture up through the Intermountain
West to the central Rockies. The Day 5 Marginal Risk is expanded
farther east through western Colorado and New Mexico. Moisture may
end up lifting farther north and some 12Z guidance has decent QPF
in Montana, so please monitor future updates.

Jackson

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Valid 00Z Thu May 07 2026 - 00Z Sun May 10 2026

...WPC Winter Weather Desk no longer routinely staffed until
late September, 2026...

Pending any significant winter weather, the WPC Winter Weather Desk
will not be staffed through the summer. The desk will resume
continuous staffing starting in the fall.

The WPC winter products will continue to be produced, however, and
all products except the heavy snow discussion (HSD) will be
available. This includes the Winter Storm Outlook (WSO), Winter
Storm Severity Index (WSSI), and Probabilistic Winter Precipitation
Forecasts (PWPF).


WPC

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 06 2026 - 12Z Thu Sep 10 2026


...Dangerous late-summer heat continues from the central/southern
Plains to the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley into next week...

...Overview...

A strong upper ridge will continue to be the focus for a long-
lasting heat wave across the south-central U.S. while a slow-moving
upper low will keep much of the western U.S. cooler than normal
into next week. Meanwhile, monsoonal and glancing tropical moisture
may lead to briefly heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding
Sunday into Monday across parts of the Southwest. Heavy rainfall
potential may also increase across the north-central U.S. early
next week as a strengthening low pressure system moves across the
region.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models remain in good overall agreement to start the medium range
period with continued troughing across the western U.S. and eastern
U.S. with strong ridging in between. Towards the middle of next
week, models favor the trough/upper low over the Pacific Northwest
to eject eastward into the northern Plains and south-central
Canada, leading to surface cyclogenesis just north of the
U.S./Canada border while also suppressing and expanding the central
U.S. ridge farther to the south and east. There remains some
questions as to the degree of troughing that lingers downstream
over the eastern U.S. as this all occurs, but current consensus
seems to favor rising heights and more zonal flow over the
Northeast. Upstream, models are advertising another trough/upper
low developing along or just off the West Coast by Wednesday and
Thursday as more energy digs into the eastern Pacific.

Some uncertainty remains with the precipitation forecast across
southern California and parts of the Southwest and Intermountain
West Sunday into Monday as the degree of influence from tropical
moisture remains in question. Models generally agree with a more
westward track of Hurricane Marie, losing most of the last
remaining bit of support for a more northerly track towards
southern California. However, despite a more westerly track, models
do still suggest at least some glancing tropical moisture
associated with Marie may get drawn up into the monsoonal plume
late this weekend into early next week. What models don't yet agree
on is just how much of that moisture will translate to significant
precipitation, as some are fairly wet and others nearly completely
dry. Given the uncertainty and a recent drier trend, decided to
keep the forecast more conservative for now. This allows for a
lower end PoPs and precipitation amounts but with the caveat that
locally heavier and more widespread amounts are not completely
ruled out.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

An unrelenting and intense late-summer heat wave will continue to
bring extremely hot temperatures to much of the central/southern
Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into
next week. High temperatures well into the 90s and low 100s
combined with high humidity and very warm overnight lows in the mid
70s will result in widespread areas of Major to Extreme HeatRisk
and a concern for heat-related illnesses. See WPC's Key Messages
for more details. Meanwhile, cooler temperatures and lower humidity
in the wake of a seasonably strong cold front will continue to
settle into parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast
heading into Labor Day. Cooler than normal temperatures will also
persist for much of the western U.S. into early next week as
unsettled weather associated with a slow-moving upper low lingers
over the region.

In between the upper low across the Pacific Northwest and the
strong ridge over the central U.S., southwesterly flow will draw
monsoonal moisture into parts of the Southwest and Intermountain
West this weekend into early next week. There may be a brief and
glancing tropical enhancement to the monsoonal moisture courtesy of
Hurricane Marie prior to tracking farther out to sea, which could
lead to a low but non-zero flash flooding threat with any showers
and thunderstorms that develop. With that being said, there still
remains a fair amount of spread between forecast precipitation
amounts, and recent trends have been drier. As a result, a more
conservative forecast approach is prudent until details become
clearer in the coming days.

The potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall is becoming more likely for parts of the
northern Rockies, northern Plains and Upper Midwest late this
weekend into early next week as a low pressure system moves
northeast across the region. A severe weather threat is also
becoming more likely across portions of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest thanks to increasing moisture and instability ahead
of this strengthening storm system.


Miller


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw