Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
906 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Sep 25 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 25 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
Heavy rainfall threat will continue through the overnight period
across Southeast New Mexico into portions of West Texas and the
Texas Panhandle this evening. Large scale ascent pattern between a
meandering ULL over AZ and a broad upper ridge positioned across
the Southern Plains will aid in a continued deep moist advection
pattern and a multitude of shortwave/mid-level perturbation
ejections out of Mexico through the next 12 hours before finally
ceasing as we head into tomorrow morning. Shortwave over Chihuahua
will be a primary player in tonight's extended period of heavy
rainfall with the disturbance forecast to eject northeast within
the mean flow centered over the NM/TX border. Sufficiently buoyant
environment of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE along with ample ascent and
PWAT anomalies between +2 to +3 deviations will lead to rainfall
rates between 1-2"/hr over much of the Southeast NM and West TX
domain with sights overlapping areas recently hit hard this
afternoon and the prior evening.
Area FFG's remain very low with several flash flood warnings
already positioned across the Southern High Plains of NM back into
the terrain of Southeast NM and far West TX. 18z HREF neighborhood
probs are indicative of scattered threats for over 2" of additional
rainfall in these areas with the latest CAMs relatively robust in
the corridor between El Paso/Donna Anna County over to Eddy/Lea
counties in NM and all of the West TX to the west of the Pecos
River. Significant flash flooding remains plausible for this entire
area with flash flooding likely to occur throughout the night. A
MDT risk remains in effect for the Sacramento Mountains where
significant flash flooding is ongoing and expected to continue. A
broad high-end SLGT is forecast over the surrounding areas with
western and eastern fringes of the coverage labeled above between
El Paso/Donna Anna and points east to the NM/TX border between
Eddy/Lea and neighboring counties of TX. The threat for flash
flooding extends into the western TX Panhandle where the flow
maintains a persistent heading for thunderstorms to rotate into the
area and cause some flash flood concerns west of the line from
Midland-Lubbock-Amarillo. SLGT risk encompasses these areas, as
well as the Desert Southwest into AZ where lingering convection
over the Mogollon Rim will allow for some flash flood concern into
the first half of the evening before the threat dwindles.
Kleebauer
Day 1 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 25 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 26 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Southwest to the Central Rockies and Southern High Plains...
Expect some of the overnight activity impacting the region to
remain ongoing beyond 12Z, with some potential for additional
flooding concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico and the
Texas Panhandle into the mid to late morning. Additional heavy
rains should be short-lived however, with the consensus of the
CAMs showing storms diminishing by late morning as the associated
shortwave energy and deeper plume of moisture lift out to the
northeast. However, given the antecedent soil conditions and some
high probabilities in both the HREF and REFS for additional amounts
of 1-2 inches, maintained a Slight extending from southeastern New
Mexico to the southern Panhandle Region. The Slight Risk was also
extended south into parts of West Texas, where activity later in
the day is expected to produce some very localized heavy amounts
(1-2 inches) including areas where 3-hr FFGs are under an inch.
Back to the north and west, a mid-to-upper level shortwave will
lift out of the Southwest, encouraging afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms, especially across portions of eastern
Arizona, southeastern Utah, and Colorado. The HREF and REFS
generally agree that the greater potential for localized heavier
amounts will center from southeastern Utah into southwestern
Colorado.
...Central Plains...
Shortwave energy and plenty of moisture emanating from the
Southwest will spread across the region later today into the
evening. While instability will remain weak and soil conditions
less sensitive, deep saturation though the air column will support
efficient rainfall and some portions of the area may see amounts
high enough to raise at least some isolated runoff concerns. Both
the HREF and REFS indicate that areas near the central Kansas-
Nebraska border northeast to the northern Nebraska-Iowa border
could see amounts over 2 inches.
...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Rain along the northern and northwestern side of strengthening
nor'easter will likely begin to spread inland by late today as the
system deepens and begins to track north. While the heaviest
amounts are expected to remain offshore, some coastal areas from
New Jersey to southern New England could begin to see some
localized heavy totals by Saturday morning.
Pereira
Day 1 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 26 2026 - 12Z Sun Sep 27 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...
...Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast into Southern New England...
As a powerful nor'easter continues to approach and then stall east
of New Jersey and south of Long Island, the potential for heavy
rainfall is likely to increases substantially along portions of the
northern Mid-Altantic to southern New England coasts. The system
will bring a generally prevailing southeast to easterly flow,
supporting a substantial influx of moisture into parts of southern
New England, southern New York, and New Jersey. Increasing
hydrologic concerns are expected. In addition to an increasing
threat for flooding in urbanized and poor drainage areas, this
heavy rain may also exacerbate ongoing coastal flooding. The
Slight Risk highlights the areas where the general model consensus
shows widespread amounts of 1-3 inches during the period.
...Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Rainfall developing late in the Day 1 period, may continue into
late Saturday morning across parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota.
Expect a diminishing threat for heavy to excessive rain by late
morning, followed a potential return later in the day centered farther
to the southwest. While confidence is limited, there remains some
signal in the guidance for storms developing back across across
parts of the central Plains along a strengthening low level jet and
axis of increasing instability and moisture.
...West Texas...
Weak mid-level energy interacting with an uptick in low level
moisture may produce some additional localized heavy amounts,
impacting the more sensitive areas of West Texas around the Davis
Mountains and Stockton Plateau. Therefore, a small Marginal Risk
was added.
Pereira
Day 2 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 27 2026 - 12Z Mon Sep 28 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...
...Northeast...
The general consensus of the models shows a powerful nor'easter
beginning to weaken as it lingers in the vicinity of the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast. How far inland, if at all, the storm drifts
will help dictate how far beyond the coastal regions its
associated heavy rains will reach. For now, maintained a Slight
Risk over eastern Massachusetts, where confidence in additional
heavy amounts is greater regardless of the track.
...Southwest...
Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying trough
digging south across California will begin to tap moisture and mid-
to-upper level energy, supporting an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity and the potential for localized areas of
flash flooding from Southern California into the Southwest.
Pereira
Day 3 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Day 4 and Day 5
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 28 2026 - 12Z Wed Sep 30 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...
...Southwest US...
Tropical moisture from Odalys and Polo will be pulled northward
into the Desert Southwest and when coupled with the afternoon
diurnal instability max will trigger scattered to widespread
convection across the region. An interaction between the eventual
closed upper reflection (ULL) over California and what will be
Polo as it begins moving northward towards Baja over the course of
the weekend into early next week. The ensemble means for Monday
into early Tuesday continue to note a broad expanse of heavier
rainfall increasingly likely for the Southwest CONUS into the Four
Corners area due to the ascent pattern downstream of the upper low
swinging into the region. PW anomalies during this period will be
between 2-3.5 standard deviations above seasonal normal for late
September. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding
has been maintained.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Progressive northern stream trough coupled with prevalent moisture
advection from the Southwest will lead to a period of convective
concerns and isolated flash flood potential Monday. A broad
Marginal Risk remains in effect for the Dakotas/Minnesota down
into the Central Plains as a continued advection of elevated PWs
streams poleward ahead of a broad upper trough/low reflection out
west. Remnant energy from what is currently Odalys will get pulled
northeastward out of the Pacific prior to the period reaching the
Northern and Central Plains Monday into early Tuesday leading to
quite a larger coverage of convection over the above area. Areal
coverage of convection will increase Tuesday as there will be a
stronger PW surge with the remnant energy from Odalys. Mean QPF is
currently between 1-2" with locally higher at 5-day leads, a
testament to the threat in question as there will likely be more
significant rainfall potential with this setup. A broad Marginal is
in effect for Monday and then a Slight Risk for Tuesday from Texas
to southern Iowa.
New England...
Eastern Massachuesetts continues to be the focus for the highest
QPF on Monday as the coastal low begins to drift away from the
region. The cumulative effect of rainfall over the long period
into the urban corridor of eastern Massachusetts will cause
hydrologic concerns, including some flooding in poor drainage
locations. It will be imperative to keep tabs on the forecast as
we move closer as the behavior of these broad closed upper level
disturbances can be tricky in their final evolution leading to some
short term shifts in the risk areas forecast.
Campbell
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Day 4 and Day 5
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 28 2026 - 12Z Wed Sep 30 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...
...Southwest US...
Tropical moisture from Odalys and Polo will be pulled northward
into the Desert Southwest and when coupled with the afternoon
diurnal instability max will trigger scattered to widespread
convection across the region. An interaction between the eventual
closed upper reflection (ULL) over California and what will be
Polo as it begins moving northward towards Baja over the course of
the weekend into early next week. The ensemble means for Monday
into early Tuesday continue to note a broad expanse of heavier
rainfall increasingly likely for the Southwest CONUS into the Four
Corners area due to the ascent pattern downstream of the upper low
swinging into the region. PW anomalies during this period will be
between 2-3.5 standard deviations above seasonal normal for late
September. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding
has been maintained.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Progressive northern stream trough coupled with prevalent moisture
advection from the Southwest will lead to a period of convective
concerns and isolated flash flood potential Monday. A broad
Marginal Risk remains in effect for the Dakotas/Minnesota down
into the Central Plains as a continued advection of elevated PWs
streams poleward ahead of a broad upper trough/low reflection out
west. Remnant energy from what is currently Odalys will get pulled
northeastward out of the Pacific prior to the period reaching the
Northern and Central Plains Monday into early Tuesday leading to
quite a larger coverage of convection over the above area. Areal
coverage of convection will increase Tuesday as there will be a
stronger PW surge with the remnant energy from Odalys. Mean QPF is
currently between 1-2" with locally higher at 5-day leads, a
testament to the threat in question as there will likely be more
significant rainfall potential with this setup. A broad Marginal is
in effect for Monday and then a Slight Risk for Tuesday from Texas
to southern Iowa.
New England...
Eastern Massachuesetts continues to be the focus for the highest
QPF on Monday as the coastal low begins to drift away from the
region. The cumulative effect of rainfall over the long period
into the urban corridor of eastern Massachusetts will cause
hydrologic concerns, including some flooding in poor drainage
locations. It will be imperative to keep tabs on the forecast as
we move closer as the behavior of these broad closed upper level
disturbances can be tricky in their final evolution leading to some
short term shifts in the risk areas forecast.
Campbell
