Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
657 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun May 19 2024 - 12Z Sun May 19 2024

...THERE IS A A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

The prospects for flash flooding remain highest over the Southeast
U.S with convergence along the cold front slowly progressing
eastward through the period and a slow-moving outflow boundary
across north FL. The general threat is waning as the best ascent
moves away from the region and we see more isolated to scattered
rainfall coverage with less prominence in the hourly rates. Further
north over AL, a remnant MCV will move east- Southeast,
interacting with the front. Some isolated spots could see 2-3" over
the course of the evening and overnight with a risk of flash
flooding while cells move overhead. Across NC, antecedent
conditions favor a better opportunity for flash flooding concerns
with streamflow anomalies relatively high after the recent active
pattern across the region. A stationary front will cause a
convergent low-level ascent pattern developing from western NC
through east-central portions of the state. Instability and PWAT
anomalies are generally modest with scattered convection the
expectation. Some isolated totals will likely hit the 2-3" marker
with perhaps a max around 4", so the threat is certainly within
reason, but the isolated nature of the potential lends more to a
MRGL than a SLGT.

Roth/Kleebauer