Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
851 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Apr 15 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
... Ohio Valley...
Only minor adjustments were made based on short-term radar imagery
but did not reflect whole-sale change in previous forecast
reasoning. The latest HREF and ARW runs still favored the area
while rainfall and related probability of exceedance from the RRFS
were lower. High seasonable PWATS and abundant instability also
support the potential for high hourly rainfall rates.
...Wisconsin and Michigan...
Made a northward expansion of the Slight risk in parts of
Wisconsin and Michigan in response to short-term trends in radar
and satellite imagery. Given the placement of convecitive
initiation...starting to give more credence to the HREF camp for
overnight convection and risk of excessive rainfall. In particular,
concern involves the potential for storms to expand northeastward
and eastward across Wisconsin and northeast Iowa given favorable
interaction if a warm front at the surface and steep mid-level
lapse rates yielding 1.5 to 2 inch per hour rates in the shorter
term before rates begin to diminish...although areas downstream
have been made more prone to flooding by 3 to 5 inch rainfall
amounts over the past few days. See MPD 0105 for further details.
...Iowa/Illinois...
Expanded the Slight Risk area westward into Iowa in the wake of
one round of showers and thundersotms over the northeast part of
the state due to concern over convective redevelopment. Normally
this would be a candidate for removal from the Slight risk
area...but moist south to southwest flow at low levels over-running
the surface outflow boundary has the potential to ignite addition
storms capable of producing locally intense rainfall rates. If
that scenario is realized...rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per
hour are possible where 1-hour Flash Flood Guidance is
comparable...with the potential for storms to track along that same
interface into Illinois. See MPD 0106 for further details.
...Central Plains southwestward to the Lower Trans-Pecos/Big
Bend...
...Oklahoma and Kansas...
A broad corridor of moisture and instability is expected to remain
in place overnight...with the HREF and RRFS indicating the
potential for multiple rounds of convectionn firing in proximity to
the dryline. HREF neighborhood probabilties of 24 hour rainfall
exceeding 2 inches are fairly high (50-70%) and 20-40% for
exceeding 3 inches. With a steady stream of PW values of 1.25 to
1.5 inches being advecting northward through the Southern/Central
Plains nearly parallel to the dryline...slow storm motion is
expected, Much as before...this Marginal Risk area was a
southwestward extension of the excessive rainfall outlook areas
over parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.
Bann
Day 1 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 16 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY..
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to focus near the west-east
orientated frontal boundary draped across the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes region into the Northeast as a weak surface low traverses the
boundary and intersects the abundant moisture and instability. Meanwhile,
the longwave trough will finally be making progress toward the
Central Plains and the deep layer moisture axis and instability
shifts slightly eastward. This setup will be conducive for periods
of heavy rainfall. Models are suggesting areal averages of 1 to 3
inches occurring with some overlap with rainfall footprint from
prior days. The Slight Risk remains in effect from northern
Illinois to souther Michigan and northwest Ohio to account for
uncertainty on storm track and the spread of 2 inch HREF 24 hr QPF
neighborhood probability.
...Eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks...
Convection is expected to become more active during the afternoon
and track generally from the southwest to northeast ahead of the
approaching trough. Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks will be in
the right entrance of the jet streak, which will help provide lift.
At the surface, high PWATS and surface instability will once again
prime the atmosphere for hourly rainfall rates of an inch/hr. QPF
guidance does show a maximum of 1-2 inches across the region, but
model guidance shows little to no probability for accumulations
exceeding 2 inches. Therefore, a Marginal Risk is maintained for
the risk area. Additionally, the more flash flood prone Ozark
mountain range is relatively dry.
...Northeast...
Remnants of the storms across the Great Lakes may bring a round of
showers and storms in the morning, followed by another round of
heavier showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Model guidance
shows a corridor of 1-1.5 inches rainfall with embedded higher
amounts depending on the model. The relatively lower flash guidance
across western Pennsylvania and the more urban footprint of areas
such as Connecticut and New England also help confidence of
expanding the Marginal eastward.
Campbell/Wilder
Day 1 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 16 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 17 2026
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flooding guidance is
less than 5 percent.
Campbell
Day 2 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 17 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 18 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN
MISSOURI, EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
A band of weakening showers and thunderstorms will pass through
the Ohio Valley with the lead shortwave trough. Meanwhile the long
wave trough approaching the Midwest will have better large scale
ascent and instability to yield better areal coverage of QPF with a
more focused swath of higher amounts across Missouri to the
Illinois/Wisconsin border. The previous Slight Risk area was
positioned more over Iowa and Wisconsin, however the latest trends
suggest a modest south/southeast adjustment to northern Missouri,
eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and extreme southwest Wisconsin.
will be valid from northern Missouri to southwestern Wisconsin for
Campbell
Day 3 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
The lead shortwave trough crossing the Ohio Valley on Thursday is
expected to be accompanied by a weakening band of showers and
thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley. The larger
scale trough and front approaching the Midwest on Day 4/Friday
will have enough dynamics and instability to support more
widespread convective coverage and heavy rainfall from eastern
Kansas to the greater Chicago metro area, and given a better model
signal for potential convective training and heavier rainfall, a
Slight Risk area will be valid from northern Missouri to
southwestern Wisconsin for Friday. A Marginal Risk area will be
valid for Day 5/Saturday across portions of the south-central U.S.
where convection develops ahead of the cold front.
Winter weather will continue to make weather headlines across the
higher terrain of the western U.S. in two distinct rounds. The
trough exiting the northern Rockies will support some lingering
snow from northern Utah/Colorado northward to western Montana
Friday, and some lighter snows for portions of the Dakotas. There
will be a break in the action until late Saturday when the next
storm system arrives in the Pacific Northwest. This is forecast to
produce additional snow for the Cascades and extending to the
northern Sierra by Monday morning, and showers for the lower
elevations and near the coast.
The anomalous and record breaking April heatwave will still be
ongoing Friday across the Eastern U.S., with the greatest
anomalies expected from western New York to Georgia on Saturday.
Widespread lower to even middle 90s are expected Friday across the
lower elevations of the Carolinas, which could set additional daily
records and perhaps come close to some monthly records. This also
holds true going into Saturday as well, although northern portions
of the Mid-Atlantic should get a modest cooling trend with a weak
frontal boundary dropping south. More substantial relief comes by
Sunday as a strong cold front steadily makes its way to the East
Coast, with the hottest conditions mainly confined to the Piedmont
and coastal plain of Virginia and the Carolinas, and then
pleasantly cooler by Monday with the front exiting the coast.
Oudit/Hamrick
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
The lead shortwave trough crossing the Ohio Valley on Thursday is
expected to be accompanied by a weakening band of showers and
thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley. The larger
scale trough and front approaching the Midwest on Day 4/Friday
will have enough dynamics and instability to support more
widespread convective coverage and heavy rainfall from eastern
Kansas to the greater Chicago metro area, and given a better model
signal for potential convective training and heavier rainfall, a
Slight Risk area will be valid from northern Missouri to
southwestern Wisconsin for Friday. A Marginal Risk area will be
valid for Day 5/Saturday across portions of the south-central U.S.
where convection develops ahead of the cold front.
Winter weather will continue to make weather headlines across the
higher terrain of the western U.S. in two distinct rounds. The
trough exiting the northern Rockies will support some lingering
snow from northern Utah/Colorado northward to western Montana
Friday, and some lighter snows for portions of the Dakotas. There
will be a break in the action until late Saturday when the next
storm system arrives in the Pacific Northwest. This is forecast to
produce additional snow for the Cascades and extending to the
northern Sierra by Monday morning, and showers for the lower
elevations and near the coast.
The anomalous and record breaking April heatwave will still be
ongoing Friday across the Eastern U.S., with the greatest
anomalies expected from western New York to Georgia on Saturday.
Widespread lower to even middle 90s are expected Friday across the
lower elevations of the Carolinas, which could set additional daily
records and perhaps come close to some monthly records. This also
holds true going into Saturday as well, although northern portions
of the Mid-Atlantic should get a modest cooling trend with a weak
frontal boundary dropping south. More substantial relief comes by
Sunday as a strong cold front steadily makes its way to the East
Coast, with the hottest conditions mainly confined to the Piedmont
and coastal plain of Virginia and the Carolinas, and then
pleasantly cooler by Monday with the front exiting the coast.
Oudit/Hamrick