Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 24 2026 - 00Z Thu Feb 26 2026

...Snow for the Great Lakes eastward to the Northeast...

...Rain/freezing rain for the Upper Midwest...

...Rain and snow for the Northwest...

Low pressure moving out of the Northern High Plains will move eastward to
the Northeast/Eastern Canada by Wednesday evening. The system will
produce snow over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday,
expanding into the Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and Central
Appalachians by Tuesday evening. Along the southern edge of the snow,
areas of rain/freezing rain will develop on Tuesday. Later, on Wednesday,
snow and coastal rain will move into the Northeast.

Meanwhile, onshore flow and low pressure move inland over the Northwest,
producing coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of Northern
California into the Northwest Monday through Wednesday morning. In
addition, a wave of low pressure develops over the Central High Plains by
Wednesday evening as snow develops over parts of the Northern Plains,
Central Plains, and Middle Mississippi Valley. Furthermore, on Wednesday
morning, rain also develops over parts of the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley.



Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 26 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026


...Overview...
Broad troughing will be present across southern Canada and east of
the Rockies while ridging exists across the Southwest to start the
medium range period Thursday. Shortwave energy embedded within the
trough will push a low pressure system across the East, bringing
heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys
to southern/central Appalachians, and potential for winter weather
in the Northeast. By the weekend, additional shortwave moving
through the trough should support a strong cold front moving into
the northern tier, bringing colder temperatures. Under the
Southwest ridge, above normal temperatures are expected, with highs
in the 90s potentially breaking records in the Desert Southwest.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement on the synoptic
evolution of a broad trough in the East and increasing ridging
over the Southwest during the medium range period. Of particular
note is a surface low that looks to generally track across the Mid-
South Thursday and into the Northeast or western Atlantic by
Friday morning. The guidance has shown some convergence with their
solutions of this system since this time yesterday. The timing of a
Pacific upper low/trough moving towards/into California early next
week shows good agreement. The 12z ECMWF made strides across the
Northern Tier of the country to start to converge with other
deterministic guidance this coming Sunday, though its shortwave
progress still lags other guidance.

The 500 hPa heights, pressures, fronts used a compromise of the
12z Canadian, UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF early on before incorporating
some of the 00z ECMWF and 12z NAEFS ensemble means later to account
for the uncertainty. The afternoon preference fits in well with
morning and overnight thinking, which should allow the 13z NBM to
remain a reasonable starting point for other grids. However, it
needed help with lighter QPF in the north- central and northeast
United States, and some magnification of the QPF amounts in the
West and East. Its winds also required some magnification,
particularly in the northern and central Rockies and northern
Plains.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
On Thursday, moisture is forecast to increase ahead of strong
upper-level energy moving through the central U.S. and along/ahead
of a cold front at the surface. Some instability could reach
through parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
toward the southern/central Appalachians. Thus rain and
thunderstorms are forecast in those areas, with widespread rain
amounts likely 1-2 inches and locally higher totals. A Marginal
Risk is maintained for this area on the Day 4/Thursday ERO, though
shifted southward to account for the most recent guidance shift.
Antecedent conditions are generally neutral there (drier farther
west and farther south), but the relatively fast movement of the
rain could be a limiting factor for flooding. Both the 12z
ECMWF/UKMET advertise a 2-4" rain event for the Central FL
Peninsula for day 5/Friday and Friday night period. The region is
in the midst of dry season/drought so this rainfall is more welcome
than not, so it was felt (after coordination with the TBW/Ruskin
FL and MLB/Melbourne FL forecast offices) that any risk area could
be held off until a stronger QPF signal emerges.

Meanwhile farther north, wintry weather is likely across much of
the Northeast, with snow to the north of the low track and a band
of sleet/freezing rain in the transition zone, but there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty on the low track. Precipitation should
clear across much of the Eastern Seaboard by Friday behind the cold
front, except for southern Georgia and Florida, where rain is
forecast to linger in the vicinity of the front stalling.

Another round of light precipitation is expected to spread across
the north-central U.S. late week, and perhaps increasing in scope
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley by Sunday. Snow is possible with
this precipitation across the north. In the West, modest
precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies late week. Downstream, the mean westerly/northwesterly flow
will lead to high winds concerns across the Rockies and High
Plains through Thursday and Friday, with fire weather a potential
threat. Light to moderate precipitation could spread across
northern California into parts of the Intermountain West and
central Rockies over the weekend.

The western two-thirds of the country will mostly be warmer than
average into late week due to the upper ridge over the Southwest.
The Southwest into the Plains can expect temperatures of 15 to 25
degrees above average, which spreads highs in the 60s as far north
as Nebraska and South Dakota. However, a strong cold front carrying
an airmass from Alaska and vicinity will bring much colder
temperatures to the northern tier by the weekend. Single digit
highs and lows below 0F are likely for parts of North
Dakota/Minnesota. Unseasonably warm temperatures continue across
the southern tier though, and highs reaching the 90s in the Desert
Southwest could set records. In the East, periods of slightly above
average temperatures are expected, until the cold front reaches
the Northeast with chillier temperatures on Sunday.


Roth/Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 00Z Tue 24 Feb 2026 - 00Z Tue 03 Mar 2026

The synoptic pattern currently features a shortwave trough near
the islands, which is forecast to shear eastward as stronger
upper-level height falls evolve well to the north between 30N to
40N. In its wake, surface ridging will advance southward in behind
a weak cold front. This boundary is expected to quickly lose its
identity and wash out through Tuesday and Wednesday. However,
lingering moisture near the dissipating front, combined with an
east-to-northeast flow into the windward slopes, will continue to
foster areas of locally heavy showers. The highest potential for
additional heavy rain through midweek will focus on Maui and the
Big Island, where favorable upslope flow may lead to showers and
isolated thunderstorms becoming anchored to the terrain. An
isolated flash flood concern cannot be entirely ruled out during
this transition.

By the latter half of the week, the arrival of a flat shortwave
ridge will promote a drier and more stable regime. During this
window, modest east-to-northeast trade winds will prevail, with
precipitation limited to isolated showers focused primarily along
windward slopes. Model agreement is high for this period,
reflecting a return to a more standard wind distribution.

Uncertainty increases heading into next weekend as an upper-level
trough to the northwest of the state begins to approach, driving a
weak cold front eastward. This feature will likely slacken the
trade wind gradient while drawing a surge of new moisture toward
the western end of the island chain. While the deterministic
ECMWF, GFS, and CMC remain slower and drier, the EC-AIFS and
AIGFS solutions are more progressive. Given that ensemble means
currently favor the more progressive AI guidance, the forecast
leans toward that consensus. This will result in an increased
threat of showers for the western islands, particularly Kauai and
Oahu, by next Sunday.

Orrison

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, ALL OF WESTERN OREGON, AND INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A deep positively tilted trough extending from British Columbia
southwest towards the Hawaiian Islands will be flanked on its
southeast side with a 170 kt southwesterly jet. This jet will be
aimed at western Washington State for the first half of the day on
Monday. Meanwhile, a weakening surface low embedded within that
trough will help direct an atmospheric river (A.R.) which extends
from the tropics east of Hawaii northeast into the West Coast. As
the jet streak reorients, a surface low will develop along that
plume, locally enhancing rainfall rates into southern Oregon and
northern California Monday night. Meanwhile, snow levels will rise
to above 8,000 ft. The combination of locally heavy rain as the low
and its associated cold front move ashore and snowmelt through the
coastal mountains from northern California through southern
Washington will likely raise local stream, creek, and river levels
such that isolated flash flooding is possible, especially in any
more flood-prone areas. The inherited Marginal Risk was mostly
unchanged, but a slower southward progression did require some
trimming of the inherited Marginal Risk area north out of the Bay
Area, as it no longer looks like meaningful rain will reach that
far south during this period.

Cook/Wegman

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...

2100 UTC UPDATE...

Latest models continue to emphasize the northern Sierra to the
northwest CA coast range for widespread heavy precip day 2. No
changes made to the previous marginal or slight risk areas.

Oravec.


Few changes were needed to the inherited risk areas across northern
California. The cold front associated with a low that will move
inland and dissipate into Oregon will keep a steady stream of
subtropical Pacific moisture moving into northern California for
much of the day Tuesday. The rain will be aided, in part, by the
persistent 150 kt jet, aimed at southwestern Oregon. The rain
shield looks to stay more over northern California and not get
quite as far south into the southern Sierras, so the inherited
Slight and Marginal Risks were trimmed on their south sides. A few
other notable changes were somewhat of a decrease in total rainfall
expected, due in part to the expectation of less elevated
convection than previous forecasts. However, given the recent
multiple feet of snow that fell into the northern Sierras over the
past week or two, there is plenty of snow to melt as snow levels on
Tuesday remain between 8,000 and 9,000 feet across all of the
northern Sierras. Thus, while confidence in Slight Risk level
impacts occurring has decreased a bit, there still remains enough
to maintain the Slight across the northern Sierra Nevada and their
adjacent foothills. The rain will continue pushing south but
rapidly diminish in intensity Tuesday night. This combined with
falling snow levels by Wednesday will end the flash flooding
threat, though river levels will likely remain elevated through
late week.

Wegman

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 26 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

On Thursday, moisture is forecast to increase ahead of strong
upper-level energy moving through the central U.S. and along/ahead
of a cold front at the surface. Some instability could reach
through parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
toward the southern/central Appalachians. Thus rain and
thunderstorms are forecast in those areas, with widespread rain
amounts likely 1-2 inches and locally higher totals. A Marginal
Risk is maintained for this area on the Day 4/Thursday ERO, though
shifted southward to account for the most recent guidance shift.
Antecedent conditions are generally neutral there (drier farther
west and farther south), but the relatively fast movement of the
rain could be a limiting factor for flooding. Both the 12z
ECMWF/UKMET advertise a 2-4" rain event for the Central FL
Peninsula for day 5/Friday and Friday night period. The region is
in the midst of dry season/drought so this rainfall is more welcome
than not, so it was felt (after coordination with the TBW/Ruskin
FL and MLB/Melbourne FL forecast offices) that any risk area could
be held off until a stronger QPF signal emerges.

Meanwhile farther north, wintry weather is likely across much of
the Northeast, with snow to the north of the low track and a band
of sleet/freezing rain in the transition zone, but there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty on the low track. Precipitation should
clear across much of the Eastern Seaboard by Friday behind the cold
front, except for southern Georgia and Florida, where rain is
forecast to linger in the vicinity of the front stalling.

Another round of light precipitation is expected to spread across
the north-central U.S. late week, and perhaps increasing in scope
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley by Sunday. Snow is possible with
this precipitation across the north. In the West, modest
precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies late week. Downstream, the mean westerly/northwesterly flow
will lead to high winds concerns across the Rockies and High
Plains through Thursday and Friday, with fire weather a potential
threat. Light to moderate precipitation could spread across
northern California into parts of the Intermountain West and
central Rockies over the weekend.

The western two-thirds of the country will mostly be warmer than
average into late week due to the upper ridge over the Southwest.
The Southwest into the Plains can expect temperatures of 15 to 25
degrees above average, which spreads highs in the 60s as far north
as Nebraska and South Dakota. However, a strong cold front carrying
an airmass from Alaska and vicinity will bring much colder
temperatures to the northern tier by the weekend. Single digit
highs and lows below 0F are likely for parts of North
Dakota/Minnesota. Unseasonably warm temperatures continue across
the southern tier though, and highs reaching the 90s in the Desert
Southwest could set records. In the East, periods of slightly above
average temperatures are expected, until the cold front reaches
the Northeast with chillier temperatures on Sunday.


Roth/Tate

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

On Thursday, moisture is forecast to increase ahead of strong
upper-level energy moving through the central U.S. and along/ahead
of a cold front at the surface. Some instability could reach
through parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
toward the southern/central Appalachians. Thus rain and
thunderstorms are forecast in those areas, with widespread rain
amounts likely 1-2 inches and locally higher totals. A Marginal
Risk is maintained for this area on the Day 4/Thursday ERO, though
shifted southward to account for the most recent guidance shift.
Antecedent conditions are generally neutral there (drier farther
west and farther south), but the relatively fast movement of the
rain could be a limiting factor for flooding. Both the 12z
ECMWF/UKMET advertise a 2-4" rain event for the Central FL
Peninsula for day 5/Friday and Friday night period. The region is
in the midst of dry season/drought so this rainfall is more welcome
than not, so it was felt (after coordination with the TBW/Ruskin
FL and MLB/Melbourne FL forecast offices) that any risk area could
be held off until a stronger QPF signal emerges.

Meanwhile farther north, wintry weather is likely across much of
the Northeast, with snow to the north of the low track and a band
of sleet/freezing rain in the transition zone, but there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty on the low track. Precipitation should
clear across much of the Eastern Seaboard by Friday behind the cold
front, except for southern Georgia and Florida, where rain is
forecast to linger in the vicinity of the front stalling.

Another round of light precipitation is expected to spread across
the north-central U.S. late week, and perhaps increasing in scope
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley by Sunday. Snow is possible with
this precipitation across the north. In the West, modest
precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies late week. Downstream, the mean westerly/northwesterly flow
will lead to high winds concerns across the Rockies and High
Plains through Thursday and Friday, with fire weather a potential
threat. Light to moderate precipitation could spread across
northern California into parts of the Intermountain West and
central Rockies over the weekend.

The western two-thirds of the country will mostly be warmer than
average into late week due to the upper ridge over the Southwest.
The Southwest into the Plains can expect temperatures of 15 to 25
degrees above average, which spreads highs in the 60s as far north
as Nebraska and South Dakota. However, a strong cold front carrying
an airmass from Alaska and vicinity will bring much colder
temperatures to the northern tier by the weekend. Single digit
highs and lows below 0F are likely for parts of North
Dakota/Minnesota. Unseasonably warm temperatures continue across
the southern tier though, and highs reaching the 90s in the Desert
Southwest could set records. In the East, periods of slightly above
average temperatures are expected, until the cold front reaches
the Northeast with chillier temperatures on Sunday.


Roth/Tate

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 24 2026 - 00Z Fri Feb 27 2026

...Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, through Northeast...
Days 1-2...

*** Mature Nor'Easter shifts northeast today from the Atlantic
Coast to Nova Scotia. Blizzard conditions continue for Eastern New
England through the rest of today ***

Surface low across the northwestern Atlantic has fallen to around
968mb, located 100 miles southeast of Nantucket. Heavy snowfall
continues across Southeast Massachusetts down into Rhode Island
where 24+" have been reported within the primary axis of
deformation that has sat over the aforementioned area. Snowfall
will continue across eastern New England from Downeast ME through
eastern Mass and RI this afternoon and evening before finally
cutting off as the occluded low shifts east-northeast. Probs for
>4" after 12z Tuesday are unlikely (<15%) with the only viable
chance over Downeast ME. As a result, this will be the last update
for our powerful Nor'Easter.

...Cascades and Northern Rockies...
Days 1-3...

Sheared low/zonally-oriented trough directs an atmospheric river
(AR) into OR this afternoon before shunting south through northern
CA tonight/Tuesday. This trough allows a tight baroclinic zone to
setup today with snow levels dropping to around 2500ft at
Snoqualmie Pass WA and to around 4000ft in northwest MT while
rising above 7000/8000ft in the core of the AR in OR. Day 1 snow
probs for >6" are 50% at pass level in the WA Cascades and for the
ranges of western MT/northern ID.

The southward shift in the AR through Tuesday brings heavy precip
to northern portions of CA and the Great Basin with CA snow levels
over 9000ft with no snow impacts. Snow levels are closer to 7000ft
in western WY and central ID where Day 2 snow probs for >6" snow
probs are 60-90%. Exceptional moisture is directed across the
northern Great Basin with Day 2 snow probs for >24" is between
50-80% in the Tetons and multi-day totals likely to exceed 3ft.

The snow focus shifts south down the Rockies into northern CO
Wednesday, but it's transient in a powerful westerly jet. Day 3
snow probs for >6" are 30-60% in the north-central CO ranges,
western WY, around Glacier NP, and in the higher WA Cascades.


...Great Lakes and Northeast...
Days 2/3...

No major changes to the current forecast for the next disturbance.
An
Alberta Clipper will shift ESE from northern MN through MI on
Tuesday before reaching Upstate NY Tuesday night and crossing New
England on Wednesday. Warm air advection ahead of the surface low
will be into an Arctic airmass with plenty of DGZ available for
snow crystal growth. Moderate snow rates from Lake Michigan
enhancement can be expected in the eastern U.P. where Day 2 snow
probs for >6" are 50-80%. Brief LES trails the clipper Tuesday
night off Lake Superior, then spreading across the Great Lakes
Wednesday. Day 2 snow probs for >6" are 50-70% in the Keweenaw
Peninsula and now up over 50% in the Tug Hill with a max of 80%
situated due east of Lake Ontario in the Tug Hill between Adams
Center and Pulaski for Day 2.5. Lower probabilities for >6"
(10-30%) off Lake Erie across the hills in southwest NY state, but
>4" probs are relatively high due to uniformity of a general 4-8"
forecast for those areas downwind of the lake for D2-2.5.


...Northern Plains...
Day 3...

The next clipper crosses the northern Plains Wednesday, pushing
into the Midwest Wednesday night. The GFS still remains the
farthest north/strongest with this clipper producing a swath of
3-6" across eastern SD into IA on D3. Other guidance remains less
bullish, so stay tuned on the potential with it which may include
both a wintry mix and snow.

Jackson/Kleebauer



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 26 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026


...Overview...
Broad troughing will be present across southern Canada and east of
the Rockies while ridging exists across the Southwest to start the
medium range period Thursday. Shortwave energy embedded within the
trough will push a low pressure system across the East, bringing
heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys
to southern/central Appalachians, and potential for winter weather
in the Northeast. By the weekend, additional shortwave moving
through the trough should support a strong cold front moving into
the northern tier, bringing colder temperatures. Under the
Southwest ridge, above normal temperatures are expected, with highs
in the 90s potentially breaking records in the Desert Southwest.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement on the synoptic
evolution of a broad trough in the East and increasing ridging
over the Southwest during the medium range period. Of particular
note is a surface low that looks to generally track across the Mid-
South Thursday and into the Northeast or western Atlantic by
Friday morning. The guidance has shown some convergence with their
solutions of this system since this time yesterday. The timing of a
Pacific upper low/trough moving towards/into California early next
week shows good agreement. The 12z ECMWF made strides across the
Northern Tier of the country to start to converge with other
deterministic guidance this coming Sunday, though its shortwave
progress still lags other guidance.

The 500 hPa heights, pressures, fronts used a compromise of the
12z Canadian, UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF early on before incorporating
some of the 00z ECMWF and 12z NAEFS ensemble means later to account
for the uncertainty. The afternoon preference fits in well with
morning and overnight thinking, which should allow the 13z NBM to
remain a reasonable starting point for other grids. However, it
needed help with lighter QPF in the north- central and northeast
United States, and some magnification of the QPF amounts in the
West and East. Its winds also required some magnification,
particularly in the northern and central Rockies and northern
Plains.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
On Thursday, moisture is forecast to increase ahead of strong
upper-level energy moving through the central U.S. and along/ahead
of a cold front at the surface. Some instability could reach
through parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
toward the southern/central Appalachians. Thus rain and
thunderstorms are forecast in those areas, with widespread rain
amounts likely 1-2 inches and locally higher totals. A Marginal
Risk is maintained for this area on the Day 4/Thursday ERO, though
shifted southward to account for the most recent guidance shift.
Antecedent conditions are generally neutral there (drier farther
west and farther south), but the relatively fast movement of the
rain could be a limiting factor for flooding. Both the 12z
ECMWF/UKMET advertise a 2-4" rain event for the Central FL
Peninsula for day 5/Friday and Friday night period. The region is
in the midst of dry season/drought so this rainfall is more welcome
than not, so it was felt (after coordination with the TBW/Ruskin
FL and MLB/Melbourne FL forecast offices) that any risk area could
be held off until a stronger QPF signal emerges.

Meanwhile farther north, wintry weather is likely across much of
the Northeast, with snow to the north of the low track and a band
of sleet/freezing rain in the transition zone, but there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty on the low track. Precipitation should
clear across much of the Eastern Seaboard by Friday behind the cold
front, except for southern Georgia and Florida, where rain is
forecast to linger in the vicinity of the front stalling.

Another round of light precipitation is expected to spread across
the north-central U.S. late week, and perhaps increasing in scope
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley by Sunday. Snow is possible with
this precipitation across the north. In the West, modest
precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies late week. Downstream, the mean westerly/northwesterly flow
will lead to high winds concerns across the Rockies and High
Plains through Thursday and Friday, with fire weather a potential
threat. Light to moderate precipitation could spread across
northern California into parts of the Intermountain West and
central Rockies over the weekend.

The western two-thirds of the country will mostly be warmer than
average into late week due to the upper ridge over the Southwest.
The Southwest into the Plains can expect temperatures of 15 to 25
degrees above average, which spreads highs in the 60s as far north
as Nebraska and South Dakota. However, a strong cold front carrying
an airmass from Alaska and vicinity will bring much colder
temperatures to the northern tier by the weekend. Single digit
highs and lows below 0F are likely for parts of North
Dakota/Minnesota. Unseasonably warm temperatures continue across
the southern tier though, and highs reaching the 90s in the Desert
Southwest could set records. In the East, periods of slightly above
average temperatures are expected, until the cold front reaches
the Northeast with chillier temperatures on Sunday.


Roth/Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw