Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
549 PM EST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 00Z Wed Feb 11 2026

...Dangerous Arctic airmass will persist over the eastern Great Lakes,
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast tonight...

...Lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow continues for the
Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies Sunday...

...Warmer-than-average temperatures continue for much of the central to
western U.S....

A bitterly cold Arctic airmass that has overspread the eastern Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast following a pair of cold
front passages is expected to persist through tonight. Lingering gusty
winds will lead to dangerously cold wind chills as low as the negative 30s
across the Interior Northeast/New England and the single digits and teens
elsewhere, particularly through the morning hours. Conditions are expected
to moderate through the early part of the week, with highs Monday and
Tuesday increasing by around 10 degrees or so each day.

Onshore flow accompanying a Pacific system is spreading precipitation
across the Pacific Northwest and into the Rockies and Great Basin Sunday
afternoon. Light to moderate rain showers should continue initially for
lower elevations/valleys inland through the northern Great Basin/Rockies.
Rain may transition to a wintry mix for some lower elevation locations
Sunday night into early Monday as cooler air filters in, though
accumulations should remain limited. Some precipitation is also expected
into adjacent portions of the northern High Plains. Higher elevation
mountain ranges from the southern Cascades to the northern Rockies will
see moderate to locally heavy snowfall. Precipitation chances will quickly
decrease into the day Monday as the influx of moisture ends, with the snow
lingering longest for higher elevations of the northern Rockies. Another
system looks to bring some moderate lower elevation rainfall and heavy
high elevation snow further south into California and the Sierras Tuesday.

The northern tier of the country may see some light icing and snow showers
as a clipper-like system moving along the U.S./Canadian border. As it
reaches the Great Lakes the system will increase in intensity yielding
moderate snow for Upstate New York/New England Tuesday. Moisture
advecting ahead of a cold front in the Mississippi Valley into the
southern Plains will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms
possibly as early as Tuesday morning, but more likely into the day on
Tuesday.

Warmer-than-average conditions will continue into the early part of the
week across much of the central to western U.S. The greatest anomalies
remain focused on the northern to central Plains, where highs as warm as
the 60s and 70s are upwards of 35-40 degrees above early February
averages. Some daily record-tying/breaking highs may be reached Monday
across the central Plains. A cold front will bring closer to average
conditions for portions of the northern Plains Monday, with highs in the
40s. While not quite as anomalous, conditions still remain above average
across much of the Interior West, with highs into the 50s and 60s, and
across the southern tier with 70s to low 80s from the southern Plains west
through the Southwest to southern California. The incoming Pacific system
will keep temperatures closer to average for the Pacific northwest,
northern California, and northern Great Basin, with highs in the 40s and
50s. Improving conditions will spread into portions of the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys and Southeast Monday, with highs increasing into the 40s and 50s
to the north and 60s and 70s to the south.


Campbell/Putnam/Roth


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026


...Overview...

Troughing diving down the West Coast as the period begins
Wednesday will eventually send southern stream energy into the
Southwest around Friday. This should bring an expanding area of
precipitation, potentially moderate to locally heavy, to the south-
central U.S. by this weekend. This system will traverse the
southern half of the nation helping to eventually spread
precipitation into the East with uncertain wintry impacts possible
on the north side. A second trough/upper low will amplify and drop
south along the West Coast by next weekend as well.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The greatest source of uncertainty continues to be with the west
coast troughing by mid to late week and how/when that energy moves
eastward across the country. There remains a lot of uncertainty
with the timing/strength of this feature and how much northern
stream interaction there is. The 06z GFS/GEFS seemed to be
outliers with a quicker and farther north solution, however their
12z runs have come more in line with the model consensus. At this
point confidence is increasing that there will be a significant
storm moving across the country by this coming weekend, however
the details remain uncertain.

All you have to do is look at the jump between the 00z and 12z
ECMWF to understand the uncertainty that still exists. The 00z
depicted a slower suppressed system, with the 12z a bit
quicker/stronger and more phased with the northern stream.
Generally subtle differences in the 500mb forecast resulted in a
major shift in the strength/track of the low and sensible weather
impacts. The 00z EC ensemble plots indicated much above normal
spread for the lead time centered around the strength/depth of the
low moving into CA and northern MX early Fri, which is the feature
that then tracks across the country. The AIFS has generally been
the most consistent with this storm, although even it has shown
some run to run variability. It seems likely that additional model
fluctuations will occur, with the 00z and 12z ECMWF seemingly
representing the slow/south and fast/north bookends of plausible
outcomes. At this point the most probable outcome is likely in
between these two more extreme solutions, with the 12z AIFS
currently in a pretty good middle ground when accounting for multi
cycle model fluctuations. Will just need to continue to monitor
trends over the coming days, as additional changes to the forecast
are likely.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Precipitation will be ongoing across California into the central
Great Basin on Wednesday, with some moderate to locally heavy
rainfall along the coast and modest snows in the Sierra. Recent
runs of the AIFS has shown a signal for heavy rainfall across the
sensitive terrain of southern CA Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. This has been a pretty reliable model for systems moving
into CA this winter, and it would indicate a low end flood risk as
this rain moves across. Will hold off on any Marginal risk give
continued model spread on these details, but will continue to
monitor.

As this system tracks inland precipitation is likely to blossom
and quickly expand across the central U.S. and eventually into the
East. Details regarding how the trough/low evolves are still highly
uncertain and these differences will play a major role in sensible
weather impacts from this system. That said, confidence is
increasing that this system will result in an axis of heavy
rainfall by this weekend. At least some flash flood potential could
exist across portions of the Southern Plains into the lower MS
Valley, although the exact axis remains unclear.

With the system initially displaced from the northern stream there
is not a lot of cold air to work with, so wintry impacts currently
appear limited initially. By the time the low gets into the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast some marginally colder air could allow for
wintry weather impacts to the north of the low track, although
these details remain highly uncertain. Overall not a ton of cold
air to work, so things would need to come together just right to
get significant winter impacts. This is certainly a possibility
though, especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast, so will continue to monitor.

The next trough off the West will bring increasing precipitation
chances to the Pacific Northwest and California Friday and through
the weekend, with heavy precipitation possible again for
particularly the northern California coast and into the Sierra.


Chenard/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Valid 00Z Mon 09 Feb 2026 - 00Z Mon 16 Feb 2026

...Windy with potential for flooding rainfall this weekend along
and near a nearly stationary front into the early part of the
upcoming week...

A slow moving cold front will be the focus for unsettled weather
through the weekend and into the early portion of the upcoming
week with potential hazards including heavy to excessive
rainfall, strengthening winds and a few thunderstorms. The passage
of an upper level disturbance to the south of the islands will
support an expansion of the rainfall threat before high pressure
builds to the north of the island. On the one hand...the easterly
flow will be helping to draw drier air westward leading to
decreasing areal coverage of rain fall by Tuesday or
Wednesday...the pressure gradient between the surface high and the
upper level disturbance will prolong the breezy to windy
conditions into mid-week, The ECMWF has tended to lead the GFS in
handling the mid-latitude synoptic system over the Pacific which
was helping drive and define the surface boundary.



Bann

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
621 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Orrison


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
621 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
621 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Transverse Range of Southern California...
The latest 12Z multi-model consensus suggests a modest atmospheric
river and an associated Pacific cold front advancing inland across
central and southern CA later Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
This will be driven by the approach of an amplifying upper-level
trough and associated closed low from offshore. The latest
GFS/ECMWF solutions suggest rather modest IVT magnitudes of 300 to
500 kg/m/s. However, this moisture transport along the front is
expected to be become oriented orthogonal to the Transverse Range,
which may foster by the end of the period some heavier
orographically focused rainfall. A look the 12Z EC-AIFS guidance
suggests areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties
as having the greatest concerns. Deterministic guidance suggests as
much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the upslope flow into the terrain
coupled with the front may support isolated heavier totals closer
to 3 inches. Will hold off on a Marginal Risk for now, but an
upgrade may need to considered with future updates, and especially
given some of the runoff sensitivities with burn scars and the
sloped terrain.

Orrison

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026


Precipitation will be ongoing across California into the central
Great Basin on Wednesday, with some moderate to locally heavy
rainfall along the coast and modest snows in the Sierra. Recent
runs of the AIFS has shown a signal for heavy rainfall across the
sensitive terrain of southern CA Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. This has been a pretty reliable model for systems moving
into CA this winter, and it would indicate a low end flood risk as
this rain moves across. Will hold off on any Marginal risk give
continued model spread on these details, but will continue to
monitor.

As this system tracks inland precipitation is likely to blossom
and quickly expand across the central U.S. and eventually into the
East. Details regarding how the trough/low evolves are still highly
uncertain and these differences will play a major role in sensible
weather impacts from this system. That said, confidence is
increasing that this system will result in an axis of heavy
rainfall by this weekend. At least some flash flood potential could
exist across portions of the Southern Plains into the lower MS
Valley, although the exact axis remains unclear.

With the system initially displaced from the northern stream there
is not a lot of cold air to work with, so wintry impacts currently
appear limited initially. By the time the low gets into the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast some marginally colder air could allow for
wintry weather impacts to the north of the low track, although
these details remain highly uncertain. Overall not a ton of cold
air to work, so things would need to come together just right to
get significant winter impacts. This is certainly a possibility
though, especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast, so will continue to monitor.

The next trough off the West will bring increasing precipitation
chances to the Pacific Northwest and California Friday and through
the weekend, with heavy precipitation possible again for
particularly the northern California coast and into the Sierra.


Chenard/Santorelli

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026


Precipitation will be ongoing across California into the central
Great Basin on Wednesday, with some moderate to locally heavy
rainfall along the coast and modest snows in the Sierra. Recent
runs of the AIFS has shown a signal for heavy rainfall across the
sensitive terrain of southern CA Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. This has been a pretty reliable model for systems moving
into CA this winter, and it would indicate a low end flood risk as
this rain moves across. Will hold off on any Marginal risk give
continued model spread on these details, but will continue to
monitor.

As this system tracks inland precipitation is likely to blossom
and quickly expand across the central U.S. and eventually into the
East. Details regarding how the trough/low evolves are still highly
uncertain and these differences will play a major role in sensible
weather impacts from this system. That said, confidence is
increasing that this system will result in an axis of heavy
rainfall by this weekend. At least some flash flood potential could
exist across portions of the Southern Plains into the lower MS
Valley, although the exact axis remains unclear.

With the system initially displaced from the northern stream there
is not a lot of cold air to work with, so wintry impacts currently
appear limited initially. By the time the low gets into the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast some marginally colder air could allow for
wintry weather impacts to the north of the low track, although
these details remain highly uncertain. Overall not a ton of cold
air to work, so things would need to come together just right to
get significant winter impacts. This is certainly a possibility
though, especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast, so will continue to monitor.

The next trough off the West will bring increasing precipitation
chances to the Pacific Northwest and California Friday and through
the weekend, with heavy precipitation possible again for
particularly the northern California coast and into the Sierra.


Chenard/Santorelli

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 00Z Thu Feb 12 2026


...Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies...
Day 1...

A shortwave trough crosses the Pacific Northwest this evening and
the northern Rockies Monday. Much of the moisture is ahead of this
trough axis with moderate to heavy rates stretches from far
northern CA through OR and western MT. Snow levels are initially
high, around 7000ft, over northern CA through ID/southern
MT, with a gradient down to 4000ft just a couple hundred miles
north. Height falls from the trough axis will lower tonight to
around 4000ft across the snow zone (3000ft where the 4000ft levels
currently are). Day 1 snow probs are 50-80% for >6" across the
Sawtooths through Bitterroots, and all western MT and northwest WY
ranges. These values are generally 30-70% for the WA/OR Cascades
above about 5000ft. Ridging behind the trough axis will provide a
fairly clean cut off for this mountain snow fall by late Monday.


...Sierra Nevada to Wyoming...
Days 2-3...

A closed mid-level low will approach central California from the
west on Tuesday before stalling over northern CA through much of
Wednesday as a reinforcing trough digs around it well offshore.
Strengthening left exit jet dynamics through this time will enhance
lift for the onshore flow that rises over the Sierra Nevada. Energy
sheds east from the upper low Tuesday night bringing much needed
precip to the Great Basin and central Rockies through midweek.

Snow levels will be at or just below 7000ft along the Sierra Nevada
on Tuesday in the onshore flow, dropping to around 6000ft Tuesday
night under height falls. Great Basin/Rockies snow levels will
generally remain 6000-7000ft through midweek.

Day 2 snow probs for >6" are generally 30-60% along the Sierra
Nevada (and Lassen Peak) for the initial snow on Tuesday. The bulk
of Sierra snow falls Tuesday night/Wednesday with Day 3 snow probs
for >12" generally 30-60% between 6500ft and 8000ft (and 80%
above). High-end advisories are raised for the Sierra Nevada. There
is risk for localized enhanced snowfall that would warrant targeted
warnings, particularly if rates can pick up around 7000ft
elevation. Farther east, Day 3 snow probs for >6" are 30-70% on the
highest NV ranges (such as Ruby), the highest Uinta, and
particularly for the Tetons and Wind Rivers.


...Northern Great Lakes and Northeast...
Days 2/3...

The shortwave trough crossing the Pacific Northwest tonight reaches
the northern Great Lakes Monday night where it could merge with
northern stream energy over Ontario and promote decent
development/warm air advection precip over the northern Great
Lakes. This would be a wintry mix on the southern end with some
snow banding potential either over Lake Superior or possibly into
the eastern U.P. Day 2 snow probs for >4" are 20-50% over the far
northern L.P. and eastern U.P. while there are 40-70% probs for
>0.01" ice from the WI/MI border ESE across the L.P.

By Tuesday afternoon the warm air advection plume shifts through
Upstate NY with the warm nose great enough for a wintry mix which
should tend toward freezing rain given how cold it has been there
lately. Day 2.5 snow probs for >4" are 30-70% over the Tug Hill,
Adirondacks, and Greens while 0.01" ice probs are 30 to 50% for
northern PA through southern NY and east through greater NYC.

Coastal low development aids snow banding into eastern Maine on
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Day 3 snow probs for >4" are 30-50%
along the entire Maine Coast.


Jackson

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026


...Overview...

Troughing diving down the West Coast as the period begins
Wednesday will eventually send southern stream energy into the
Southwest around Friday. This should bring an expanding area of
precipitation, potentially moderate to locally heavy, to the south-
central U.S. by this weekend. This system will traverse the
southern half of the nation helping to eventually spread
precipitation into the East with uncertain wintry impacts possible
on the north side. A second trough/upper low will amplify and drop
south along the West Coast by next weekend as well.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The greatest source of uncertainty continues to be with the west
coast troughing by mid to late week and how/when that energy moves
eastward across the country. There remains a lot of uncertainty
with the timing/strength of this feature and how much northern
stream interaction there is. The 06z GFS/GEFS seemed to be
outliers with a quicker and farther north solution, however their
12z runs have come more in line with the model consensus. At this
point confidence is increasing that there will be a significant
storm moving across the country by this coming weekend, however
the details remain uncertain.

All you have to do is look at the jump between the 00z and 12z
ECMWF to understand the uncertainty that still exists. The 00z
depicted a slower suppressed system, with the 12z a bit
quicker/stronger and more phased with the northern stream.
Generally subtle differences in the 500mb forecast resulted in a
major shift in the strength/track of the low and sensible weather
impacts. The 00z EC ensemble plots indicated much above normal
spread for the lead time centered around the strength/depth of the
low moving into CA and northern MX early Fri, which is the feature
that then tracks across the country. The AIFS has generally been
the most consistent with this storm, although even it has shown
some run to run variability. It seems likely that additional model
fluctuations will occur, with the 00z and 12z ECMWF seemingly
representing the slow/south and fast/north bookends of plausible
outcomes. At this point the most probable outcome is likely in
between these two more extreme solutions, with the 12z AIFS
currently in a pretty good middle ground when accounting for multi
cycle model fluctuations. Will just need to continue to monitor
trends over the coming days, as additional changes to the forecast
are likely.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Precipitation will be ongoing across California into the central
Great Basin on Wednesday, with some moderate to locally heavy
rainfall along the coast and modest snows in the Sierra. Recent
runs of the AIFS has shown a signal for heavy rainfall across the
sensitive terrain of southern CA Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. This has been a pretty reliable model for systems moving
into CA this winter, and it would indicate a low end flood risk as
this rain moves across. Will hold off on any Marginal risk give
continued model spread on these details, but will continue to
monitor.

As this system tracks inland precipitation is likely to blossom
and quickly expand across the central U.S. and eventually into the
East. Details regarding how the trough/low evolves are still highly
uncertain and these differences will play a major role in sensible
weather impacts from this system. That said, confidence is
increasing that this system will result in an axis of heavy
rainfall by this weekend. At least some flash flood potential could
exist across portions of the Southern Plains into the lower MS
Valley, although the exact axis remains unclear.

With the system initially displaced from the northern stream there
is not a lot of cold air to work with, so wintry impacts currently
appear limited initially. By the time the low gets into the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast some marginally colder air could allow for
wintry weather impacts to the north of the low track, although
these details remain highly uncertain. Overall not a ton of cold
air to work, so things would need to come together just right to
get significant winter impacts. This is certainly a possibility
though, especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast, so will continue to monitor.

The next trough off the West will bring increasing precipitation
chances to the Pacific Northwest and California Friday and through
the weekend, with heavy precipitation possible again for
particularly the northern California coast and into the Sierra.


Chenard/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw