Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 14 2026 - 00Z Tue Jun 16 2026

...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds,
large hail, and numerous instances of flash flooding are expected to
impact the Central U.S. today...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to move across the
Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast to end the weekend...

...Heat will build over the Pacific Northwest as much cooler air surges
into the mid-section of the country to end the heat in the East...

The forecast remains on track for cool Canadian air to work its way
southward into the northern Plains, and eventually much of the eastern
two-thirds of the country by early next week. As the cool air mass
advances forward into the hot and humid pre-frontal air, strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are
expected to erupt and expand eastward across the South-Central Plains
toward the Midwest today and into tonight. In addition, locally a few
inches of heavy rain can be expected with these thunderstorms, leading to
a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the Ozarks today.
These severe storms are expected to lose intensity by Sunday morning as
they advance farther to the south toward the Southern Plains.

By Sunday, a low pressure wave developing along the cold front will likely
trigger additional strong to severe thunderstorms from the Midwest to the
Ohio Valley and through lower Great Lakes. Increasingly southerly wind
ahead of the cold front will try to send heat and humidity up the East
Coast once again on Sunday with high temperatures soaring to near 100
degrees in central North Carolina. The heat and humidity will aid the
production of additional strong to severe thunderstorms from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast later on Sunday ahead of the cold front with
the intensifying low pressure wave. Damaging winds appear to be the main
concern with this episode of strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday. By
Monday morning, the cold front is forecast to move off the New England
coast as the refreshingly cool air from Canada will drop temperatures into
the 40s and 50s across the Northern and Central U.S. by Monday morning.

Elsewhere, a round of generally light rainfall associated with the western
end of the cold front is expected to gradually taper off over the northern
High Plains. Meanwhile, monsoonal showers are forecast to emerge over the
Four Corners and Southern Rockies later today. The Desert Southwest and
the Central Valley of California will remain hot, with highs in the 110s
and 100s, respectively. Across the Pacific Northwest, heat is forecast to
build, with record-high temperatures potentially reaching into the 80s and
lower 90s by Sunday afternoon. Farther east, the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast will not be as hot today behind a leading front. However, the
South remains hot and humid as the front will become nearly stationary.
From Sunday into Monday, the South is expected to remain under the threat
of showers and thunderstorms along with a threat of heavy rain from the
southern High Plains through northern Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley.


Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jun 20 2026


...Building Heat from the West/Southwest to South-Central U.S....

...Heavy Rain/Flooding threats over the Midwest and the South...


...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance continues to show better than average agreement on the
large scale pattern during the medium range period, with some
typical variations in the smaller scale details which may take
until the short range to fully resolve. This features an initially
amplified Western ridge and Great Lakes to Eastern trough which is
periodically reinforced with shortwaves/energies from central
Canada. The pattern should ease and become more zonal by later in
the period as energy moves into the West acting to flatten the
ridge and Eastern U.S. shortwaves begin to push more eastward.
Heavy rainfall and convection threats should tend to focus
initially across the Midwest into the East, with a push with time
towards the South.

The WPC forecast for today used a general model blend of the
deterministic guidance for the first half of the period,
transitioning towards half ensemble mean blend by the end of the
period to mitigate differences. Overall maintained good continuity
with the previous WPC forecast, and the NBM was a very reasonable
starting point for the gridded forecast.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A wavy front will settle and trail back from the Southeast U.S.
through the Gulf Coast and southern Rockies/Plains next week and
provide a focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Deep
Gulf/tropical moisture return and instability will interact with
the generally west to east oriented front to fuel an heavy
rainfall/flash flooding threat to include potential for the
repeat/training of activity. The WPC Day 4/5 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) for Tuesday/Wednesday have Marginal to Slight Risk
areas for a flooding potential focus over the western/central Gulf
Coast states/vicinity and this threat may extend into the later
week too.

Elsewhere, an organized heavy rain and thunderstorm threat is
meanwhile slated to develop and linger next week as a series of
energetic and progressive northern stream shortwave and associated
surface lows/fronts dig from the north-central U.S. through the
Midwest. A WPC Day 5/Wednesday ERO Marginal Risk area centered over
the Midwest continues to be highlighted, coinciding with SPC
convective areas too. Threat potential will persist later next week
as systems refire activity, but also expand focus into the south-
central U.S./Mid- South and the east/northeast U.S..

Early week ridging over the West will lead to much above normal
temperatures and a moderate to locally major HeatRisk, especially
into parts of the Southwest. With time, the heat will spread into
the south-central U.S. with more widespread major HeatRisk expected
for parts of central Texas. Elevated heat threats look to
overspread the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Florida as well.

Schichtel/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 00Z Sun 14 Jun 2026 - 00Z Sun 21 Jun 2026

The weekend starts with generally light trade winds and below
normal precipitable water (PW) anomalies. As a frontal boundary to
the north weakens, the pressure gradient across the Central
Pacific will restrengthen and trade winds will strengthen to close
out the weekend and continue into the first half of next week.
The rejuvenated trade wind regime will also re-introduce inflated
PW anomalies. In turn, expect daily episodes of showers and
occasional thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the island
chain through the first half of the week. As a nearby cut-off
upper low northeast of Hawaii moves north and east by mid-week,
upper level ridging will build in aloft in its place. Lighter
trade winds, drier conditions, and slightly hotter temperatures
underneath the strengthening ridge aloft are anticipated for the
second half of next week.


Mullinax

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Jun 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Jun 14 2026

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI, SOUTHEAST KANSAS, NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

01Z Update: Moderate risk from prior forecast remains on track with
the core of heaviest precipitation likely to occur over the quad
state intersection of OK/KS/AR/MO overnight. Deep moist profiles
situated over the Central Plains to Mississippi Valley will fuel
the potential for significant rainfall this evening with the
upstream trough and cold front progression already underway for
areas further north. MUCAPE off the latest RAP analysis indicates a
corridor of 4000-6000 J/kg running through much of eastern KS down
into northeastern OK which has been targeted as the primary axis of
heavy precip from the latest hi-res. Models have struggled to grasp
the surface features present over the area with the recent 22z HRRR
finally coming into alignment with the current radar trends on
initialization. Expectation is for increased surface to BL
convergence along the cold front progression this evening with some
pre-frontal development likely to ensue across southern KS as a
shortwave migrates eastward ahead of the front. Signals for heavy
rainfall have been steady over eastern KS into southwest MO, but
trends for a bit more progressive cell motions have put portions of
OK/AR in play for more significant rains with the latter area (AR)
likely to see some overlap after previous rainfall this period.
Area FFG's are generally 1-1.5"/hr with 1.5-2"/3-hrs, both
thresholds that will likely be breached in this environment with
majority of hi-res signaling 2-3"/hr rates likely in the strongest
cells over the course of the evening. HREF probs continue to pin
>60% probabilities for >2" and >3" over the southeast KS and
southwest MO region, a testament to the consistency of that zone
being the primary target for the period. Thus, have maintained the
MDT risk with only some trimming of the eastern periphery as model
trends have given enough consensus to remove portions of
southeastern MO for the MDT.

SLGT risk was expanded southeast over the Memphis area and
surrounds as the current MCS propagation continues to plague the
area with flash flood warnings already in effect for parts of
western and southwest TN. In any case, the recent radar trends and
hydrologic impacts called for a short term upgrade to a SLGT risk
to correlate with what is happening currently.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 14 2026 - 12Z Mon Jun 15 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS FROM
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

20Z Update...

Expanded the Slight Risk a bit farther south across TX with some
more support for farther south QPF. Also included the Mid-
Atlantic in the larger Marginal outline with the area to the north,
and nudged that region into New England as well per some higher QPF
in the models. Lastly, with little change in the synoptic pattern
over FL, expect another change of sea-breeze-driven storms over the
eastern portions of the Peninsula, where a Marginal Risk was added.

Fracasso

Previous discussion is below:

A slow-moving but potent cold front will approach portions of north
Texas through into Arkansas on Sunday. The MCS that caused the
Moderate Risk flooding in Missouri Saturday night will be
responsible for the heavy rains that elevate northeast Texas
through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Slight Risk
category. Associated heavy rain will be ongoing at the start of the
period Sunday morning, and will weaken and dissipate by midday.
Since the forward/southward progression of the heavies rains will
slow after daybreak Sunday, some areas may see several hours of
weakening but still heavy rains. Abundant moisture will remain in
place south of the front, as PWATs rise as high as 2.25 inches.
Thus, any cells producing rains will have no trouble doing so
efficiently. During the afternoon and evening, this area may see
additional widely scattered storms with the strong front stalled
out in the area, but coverage will be somewhat in question as the
stalled out front alone will not be enough forcing due to flow on
either side of the front weakening to light and variable winds.
Further west into west Texas and New Mexico, a shortwave trough
running into some of the same Gulf moisture as further east should
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in
clusters from the afternoon well into the evening.

Topographic assistance by the Sacramento Mountains and other
ranges may locally produce heavy rains, where any burn scars may
take over at raising the flash flooding risk. The same front
extends into the Appalachians and interior Northeast. While the
storms will be racing in these areas, the abundance of moisture
advecting north into the front will support the storms in their
capability of producing heavy rainfall. The Marginal Risk for these
areas was expanded along the Canadian border through northern
Maine. The Marginal for portions of the Mid-Atlantic was split into
2 areas with this update. One for the I-95 corridor from DC to
Philly, and a second for the Hampton Roads area. Abundant
Gulf/Atlantic moisture in these areas will support fast-moving but
training storms capable of producing heavy downpours. Due to
ongoing drought, the threat really is focused on the urban areas
where FFGs are lower. The intermediate rural areas were removed
with this update as any training storms that occur over most of the
Delmarva will be over rural and flood-resistant/flat areas.

Wegman


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 15 2026 - 12Z Tue Jun 16 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...Southeastern Texas to southern Mississippi...

Expanded the Slight Risk across much of Southeastern Texas to the
Rio Grande with an increasing signal for heavier rainfall on
Monday. Upper jet across the central Plains into Oklahoma will lie
on the southwest side of a sprawling upper low over Hudson Bay,
leaving Texas and the Lower MS Valley in the warm/moist sector to
the south of a front. PWATs to 2.25 inches will be drawn northward
due in part to a mid-level circulation out of coastal Mexico as
well as energy exiting the southern Rockies. Combination of that
forcing, ample moisture, and a nearby frontal boundary should
support at least scattered heavier rain and some instances of flash
flooding. FFG values decrease away from the coast, and highlighted
these areas for now (despite the recent dryness which can act to
increase runoff), in an arc from Laredo to Austin to College
Station (then continuing into Louisiana like the previous ERO).
ECMWF EFI QPF highlights SoT near 1 within this Slight Risk
outline, suggesting even a higher-end Slight risk for areas near
the TX/LA border but perhaps also near the Rio Grande. New 12Z CSU
first guess ERO also showed an expansion of the Slight, in line
with the updated changes. Model QPFs show some 4-8" amounts (and
some >10" amounts) in this 24-hr period but the placement over
southwestern/south Texas is uncertain (noting the AI guidance is
closer to the coast). Potential exists for a further upgrade to a
Moderate Risk somewhere in this region but would like to see the
CAM guidance in future updates.

Fracasso

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 16 2026 - 12Z Thu Jun 18 2026
...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST...

20Z Update: General model consensus remains pertinent for a SLGT
risk threat of flash flooding across portions of the Central Gulf
Coast with emphasis along the I-10 corridor. Recent ensemble QPF
distribution has shifted a bit further west with the corridor of
heavier precip leading to agreement with the ML outputs from the
EC-AIFS and associated ensemble. Given the overlap, increasing
favor in flash flood prospects into southwestern LA with those
areas between the Lower Sabine to Lafayette within the target for
the D4 time frame. The SLGT risk inherited was extended west to
reflect the agreement in the 12z ensemble/ML outputs.

D5 continues to look very active with a higher likelihood of a
complex of thunderstorms materializing with increasing flash flood
concerns in-of the mid-Mississippi Valley to points east through
the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Consensus on QPF being robust is
solid, but exact placement is a bit fluid currently as models are
still trying to distinguish exact placement downstream of
initiation over the Midwest and northern/central Ohio Valley.
Considering the forward propagation uncertainty, elected to
maintain the MRGL risk with some minor adjusting on the northern
and eastern periphery to reflect QPF orientation and pQPF 90th
percentile forecast of >1.5" of precipitation. An upgrade in future
forecasts is likely, but there is still time for further assessment
and developing a better consensus.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

The first half of the medium range will see two particular threats
for flash flooding. First, along the Gulf Coast, a stationary
front will work in tandem with with tropical moisture to develop
thunderstorms capable of torrential downpours both on Day 4
(Tuesday) and Day 5 (Wednesday). There is greater confidence in
Tuesday's flash flood threat given better model agreement in
placement of QPF and the nearby frontal boundary remaining strong
enough to help trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms. PWs
will remain above 2.0" in many cases as well, allowing developing
thunderstorms to contain highly efficient rainfall rates. Soils
will be more saturated in wake of Monday's thunderstorms as well,
making the region more susceptible to flash flooding. The forecast
remains largely on track for Tuesday (Day 4) with only some minor
tweaks to the inherited Marginal and Slight Risks to more closely
resemble the latest WPC QPF. By Wednesday (Day 5) the frontal
boundary will undergo frontolysis and the source of lift at the
surface will weaken. However, ensemble guidance continues to show
ample tropical moisture along the Central Gulf Coast, which at by
Wednesday will have dealt with multiple rounds of Excessive
Rainfall. A Marginal Risk was introduced along the I-10 corridor
from the Houston metro on east to the FL Panhandle to account for
the flash flood potential around the more urbanized communities
along the central Gulf Coast.

Farther north, Wednesday looks like an active day from the Midwest
on east into the OH Valley. A 500mb shortwave trough racing east
towards the Great Lakes late Wednesday will provide healthy upper-
level ascent aloft to foster the development of low pressure.
Meanwhile, a strengthening LLJ will direct anomalous moisture
located over the South northward into the region. NAEFS shows an
impressive IVT for mid-June that surpasses 750 kg/m/s over the
eastern Corn Belt that will provide copious amounts of moisture.
Guidance is not in agreement yet as to which locations are most
favored to witness the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Fast storm
motions should also help to limit residency times of developing
storms. That said, PWs ranging between 1.75-2.0" will be the norm
late Wednesday with storms likely containing efficient rainfall
rates. A Marginal Risk was introduced to account for the localized
flash flood potential on Wednesday from the Middle MS River on east
into the OH Valley.

Mullinax

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 16 2026 - 12Z Thu Jun 18 2026
...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST...

20Z Update: General model consensus remains pertinent for a SLGT
risk threat of flash flooding across portions of the Central Gulf
Coast with emphasis along the I-10 corridor. Recent ensemble QPF
distribution has shifted a bit further west with the corridor of
heavier precip leading to agreement with the ML outputs from the
EC-AIFS and associated ensemble. Given the overlap, increasing
favor in flash flood prospects into southwestern LA with those
areas between the Lower Sabine to Lafayette within the target for
the D4 time frame. The SLGT risk inherited was extended west to
reflect the agreement in the 12z ensemble/ML outputs.

D5 continues to look very active with a higher likelihood of a
complex of thunderstorms materializing with increasing flash flood
concerns in-of the mid-Mississippi Valley to points east through
the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Consensus on QPF being robust is
solid, but exact placement is a bit fluid currently as models are
still trying to distinguish exact placement downstream of
initiation over the Midwest and northern/central Ohio Valley.
Considering the forward propagation uncertainty, elected to
maintain the MRGL risk with some minor adjusting on the northern
and eastern periphery to reflect QPF orientation and pQPF 90th
percentile forecast of >1.5" of precipitation. An upgrade in future
forecasts is likely, but there is still time for further assessment
and developing a better consensus.

Kleebauer

..Previous Discussion..

The first half of the medium range will see two particular threats
for flash flooding. First, along the Gulf Coast, a stationary
front will work in tandem with with tropical moisture to develop
thunderstorms capable of torrential downpours both on Day 4
(Tuesday) and Day 5 (Wednesday). There is greater confidence in
Tuesday's flash flood threat given better model agreement in
placement of QPF and the nearby frontal boundary remaining strong
enough to help trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms. PWs
will remain above 2.0" in many cases as well, allowing developing
thunderstorms to contain highly efficient rainfall rates. Soils
will be more saturated in wake of Monday's thunderstorms as well,
making the region more susceptible to flash flooding. The forecast
remains largely on track for Tuesday (Day 4) with only some minor
tweaks to the inherited Marginal and Slight Risks to more closely
resemble the latest WPC QPF. By Wednesday (Day 5) the frontal
boundary will undergo frontolysis and the source of lift at the
surface will weaken. However, ensemble guidance continues to show
ample tropical moisture along the Central Gulf Coast, which at by
Wednesday will have dealt with multiple rounds of Excessive
Rainfall. A Marginal Risk was introduced along the I-10 corridor
from the Houston metro on east to the FL Panhandle to account for
the flash flood potential around the more urbanized communities
along the central Gulf Coast.

Farther north, Wednesday looks like an active day from the Midwest
on east into the OH Valley. A 500mb shortwave trough racing east
towards the Great Lakes late Wednesday will provide healthy upper-
level ascent aloft to foster the development of low pressure.
Meanwhile, a strengthening LLJ will direct anomalous moisture
located over the South northward into the region. NAEFS shows an
impressive IVT for mid-June that surpasses 750 kg/m/s over the
eastern Corn Belt that will provide copious amounts of moisture.
Guidance is not in agreement yet as to which locations are most
favored to witness the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Fast storm
motions should also help to limit residency times of developing
storms. That said, PWs ranging between 1.75-2.0" will be the norm
late Wednesday with storms likely containing efficient rainfall
rates. A Marginal Risk was introduced to account for the localized
flash flood potential on Wednesday from the Middle MS River on east
into the OH Valley.

Mullinax

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Valid 00Z Thu May 07 2026 - 00Z Sun May 10 2026

...WPC Winter Weather Desk no longer routinely staffed until
late September, 2026...

Pending any significant winter weather, the WPC Winter Weather Desk
will not be staffed through the summer. The desk will resume
continuous staffing starting in the fall.

The WPC winter products will continue to be produced, however, and
all products except the heavy snow discussion (HSD) will be
available. This includes the Winter Storm Outlook (WSO), Winter
Storm Severity Index (WSSI), and Probabilistic Winter Precipitation
Forecasts (PWPF).


WPC

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jun 20 2026


...Building Heat from the West/Southwest to South-Central U.S....

...Heavy Rain/Flooding threats over the Midwest and the South...


...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance continues to show better than average agreement on the
large scale pattern during the medium range period, with some
typical variations in the smaller scale details which may take
until the short range to fully resolve. This features an initially
amplified Western ridge and Great Lakes to Eastern trough which is
periodically reinforced with shortwaves/energies from central
Canada. The pattern should ease and become more zonal by later in
the period as energy moves into the West acting to flatten the
ridge and Eastern U.S. shortwaves begin to push more eastward.
Heavy rainfall and convection threats should tend to focus
initially across the Midwest into the East, with a push with time
towards the South.

The WPC forecast for today used a general model blend of the
deterministic guidance for the first half of the period,
transitioning towards half ensemble mean blend by the end of the
period to mitigate differences. Overall maintained good continuity
with the previous WPC forecast, and the NBM was a very reasonable
starting point for the gridded forecast.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A wavy front will settle and trail back from the Southeast U.S.
through the Gulf Coast and southern Rockies/Plains next week and
provide a focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Deep
Gulf/tropical moisture return and instability will interact with
the generally west to east oriented front to fuel an heavy
rainfall/flash flooding threat to include potential for the
repeat/training of activity. The WPC Day 4/5 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) for Tuesday/Wednesday have Marginal to Slight Risk
areas for a flooding potential focus over the western/central Gulf
Coast states/vicinity and this threat may extend into the later
week too.

Elsewhere, an organized heavy rain and thunderstorm threat is
meanwhile slated to develop and linger next week as a series of
energetic and progressive northern stream shortwave and associated
surface lows/fronts dig from the north-central U.S. through the
Midwest. A WPC Day 5/Wednesday ERO Marginal Risk area centered over
the Midwest continues to be highlighted, coinciding with SPC
convective areas too. Threat potential will persist later next week
as systems refire activity, but also expand focus into the south-
central U.S./Mid- South and the east/northeast U.S..

Early week ridging over the West will lead to much above normal
temperatures and a moderate to locally major HeatRisk, especially
into parts of the Southwest. With time, the heat will spread into
the south-central U.S. with more widespread major HeatRisk expected
for parts of central Texas. Elevated heat threats look to
overspread the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Florida as well.

Schichtel/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw