Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...Lower Arkansas, Lower Mississippi and Lower Tennessee Valleys..
The second round of height falls moving into the Central to
Southern Plains day 1 will continue to push east southeast toward
the Mid to Lower MS Valley, OH and TN Valleys during day 2. Upper
difluence is forecast to be well defined Saturday into Saturday
night/early Sunday in an axis of above average PW values that will
remain along the west to east oriented frontal boundary across
these areas. This should support potential for another round of
organized convection along this front. There is some spread with
the qpf axes, but consensus that heavy amounts are possible along
this front. The slight risk area was extended approximately 50m to
100 miles farther to the southeast across northern MS and northern
AL to cover the current model spread.

...East central NY State into Central to Northern New England...
Another round of convection possible early day 2 along the frontal
boundary pushing through the northeast as a sharpening northern
stream trof pushes eastward across northern NY into New England.
The HREF neighborhood probabilities for the 12 hour period from
1200 UTC Saturday to 0000 UTC Sunday, are high along this front for
1 and 2"+ amounts. The previous marginal risk area was extended
farther west into east central NY state to cover these higher 12
hour probabilities. There may need to be an upgrade to the risk
level in future issuances depending upon where the heavy rains
occur during day 1.

Oravec


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt