Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0700
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...Upper Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152001Z - 160200Z

SUMMARY...Intense training cells with 1.5-2"/hr rates and
localized 2-3" totals results in likely scattered flash flooding
through the evening from central Minnesota through the western
U.P. of Michigan.

DISCUSSION...Heavy thunderstorms have developed along a stationary
front ahead of a shortwave trough centered over South Dakota. This
front is in the right entrance region of a strong WSWly jet over
northern Ontario which aids lift where elevated moisture and
instability are present. Recent radar rainfall estimations are
around 1.5"/hr, particularly in northern WI. Mean layer WSWly flow
around 35kt is keeping activity moving, but the flow is oriented
with the front, so repeating thunderstorms are the main threat. A
tight instability gradient rising to 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE is
present south from the front where 1.7" PW has pooled and allows
efficient rainfall production along with hail. Given the moisture
flux/loading in the low to mid profile and repeating threat,
1.5-2"/hr rates are probable and 2-3" totals are possible through
this evening.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs are behind on this activity which has
been expected to develop by evening. At least widely scattered
exceedance of the general 2"/3hr FFG is expected, so flash
flooding is considered likely through 02Z. Further development
upstream in the Dakotas is likely, so additional regional MPDs are
possible.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DLH...FGF...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   47638808 46808735 46408774 45789104 45099462
            44899601 45289634 45989582 47189205