Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0699
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...North-Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151826Z - 160026Z

Summary...Threat of scattered flash flooding will continue as AL93
spreads 3-4"/hour rainfall rates inland. The more immediate
concern resides near the low-center along a west-east axis.
Additional storms will expand the flash flood threat southward
this afternoon.

Discussion...AL93 continues a westward track into the Florida
Peninsula, bringing a swath of heavy rainfall inland around the
low center. Over the last six hours, 3-6" of rainfall was
estimated along I-95 corridor in North-Central Florida, which led
to a Flash Flood Warning north of Melbourne, Florida. More
recently, a few spots of 3"/hr rates were estimated around the low
center, with slow storm motions of 5-10 kts.

South and west of the surface low, mesoanalysis estimated suggest
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 2.1-2.3" PWATS have materialized along
and near a surface trough connecting into the low center. Going
forward, this feature is expected to act as a focus for storms,
which could train near the low-center given the orientation of the
steering flow to the forcing. South of the low center, frictional
convergence is expected to drive additional development of very
slow moving storms with continued diurnal heating. Additional
periods of 3-4"/hr rainfall rates are expected in these regimes
this afternoon, which should maintain the threat of scattered
flash flooding given 2.5-3"/hr FFGs and sensitive urban zones in
the highlighted area.

Asherman

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   29868263 29818177 29418121 28518076 27408121
            27018130 26658157 26668203 26858222 27298264
            27948293 28828293 29418305