Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 30 2025 - 12Z Tue Apr 01 2025

...Severe weather and heavy rainfall spread from the
Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Sunday to the East Coast Monday...

...Ice storm continues Sunday across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes and Upstate New York/northern New England...

...Unsettled weather arrives over the West Coast on Sunday...

...Critical Fire Weather conditions likely for much of the Southern High
Plains into next week; much above average temperatures across the South
and East through Monday...

An energetic upper-level trough and accompanying surface low
pressure/frontal system moving through the central to eastern U.S. will
continue to bring the threat of severe weather, flash flooding, and an ice
storm along the northern tier the next couple of days. Another day of
moist return flow ahead of a trailing cold front progressing eastward
through the broader Mississippi Valley as a pair of upper-level shortwaves
pass overhead will encourage the development of numerous, intense
thunderstorms through the day Sunday. This has prompted an Enhanced Risk
of severe weather (level 3/5) from the Storm Prediction Center over the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys west through the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley
and into the ArkLaTex. Very large hail, significant damaging winds
(especially into the evening hours), and tornadoes, a few of which could
be strong, can all be expected. In addition, more than sufficient moisture
for heavy downpours as well as increasing rainfall coverage as storms grow
upscale into an organized line into the evening hours will bring the risk
of some scattered instances of flash flooding. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place to cover this threat across portions of
the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. The system will continue
eastward Monday with another round of storms expected ahead of the cold
front from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the Southeast to the
central Gulf Coast. Another Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place
for the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Some
isolated instances of flash flooding will also be possible, particularly
for northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic as well as for the Deep
South/central Gulf Coast.

To the north, a second round of wintry precipitation will continue an
ongoing ice storm across portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and
Upstate New York/northern New England as warmer air aloft overrides a
significantly colder airmass just north of a wavy quasi-stationary frontal
boundary. Significant, potentially destructive ice accumulations from
freezing rain upwards of 0.25-0.5", locally even higher, will be possible
through Sunday, which is on top of an initial round of freezing rain on
Saturday. These totals are most likely from northern Wisconsin eastward
through the UP and northern LP of Michigan as well as for far Upstate New
York and northern New England. Tree damage and power outages will remain
possible. A band of moderate to locally heavy snowfall will also continue
just to the north of the freezing rain from far northern Wisconsin into
the UP of Michigan along Lake Superior, as well as in northern Maine. The
heaviest additional snowfall totals are most likely along Lake Superior in
the UP of Michigan, where another 4-6", locally higher, will be possible.
The wintry precipitation should wind down overnight Sunday, lingering
longest across northern Maine into early Monday.

A lower elevation rain/snow mix and higher elevation snow will continue
Sunday for the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains as the
upper-level trough passes overhead and in the presence of upslope flow as
a frontal boundary lingers through the region. To the west, more
significant precipitation chances will start to ramp up Sunday into Monday
for the West Coast as a Pacific system approaches the region. Showers and
even some thunderstorms are expected along the coast from central
California northward through the Pacific Northwest, with the heaviest
rainfall focused along the coastal ranges near the California/Oregon
border. Additionally, heavy snowfall is expected for higher mountain
elevations, particularly for the northern California Ranges and Sierra
Nevada as well as the southern Cascades. Snow totals of 1-2' will be
possible, with higher totals as much as 4-5' for the Sierra. Strong winds
gusting up to 45-55 mph are also expected particularly for portions of
southern Oregon/northern California as well as southward through the
Sierra Nevada vicinity. Moisture will flow inland with the system as it
pushes into the Rockies Monday, bringing another round of lower elevation
rain/snow and higher elevation snow to the northern/central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Some areas of snow may begin to push further east
into the northern Plains by early Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, the Storm
Prediction Center maintains a Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3)
across much of central/southern New Mexico into far west Texas as
conditions remain warm, very dry, and breezy. An Elevated threat will
continue into Monday, with another Critical Risk expected Tuesday. Some
intense downpours can be expected with thunderstorms across the Florida
Peninsula Sunday, with an isolated threat for flash flooding.

Much above average early Spring temperatures will continue for portions of
the eastern and southern U.S. ahead of the noted storm system the next
couple of days. Forecast highs in the 60s and 70s will be common from the
Midwest east to the Mid-Atlantic Sunday, with highs in the 70s and 80s
across the southern Plains and Southeast. Progression of the cold front
will bring much colder temperatures in the 40s and 50s to much of the
Midwest/Ohio Valley Tuesday while areas ahead of the front will remain
warmer. Below average, chilly temperatures will remain in place along the
northern tier with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s from the northern
Plains east into the Upper Great Lakes and New England. A warm front
lifting northward will bring much warmer temperatures to New England for
Monday as highs jump into the 40s, 50s, and even some 60s. Highs will
generally be closer to average across the Pacific Northwest into the
Interior West with 50s and some 60s expected, as well as through the
Desert Southwest with highs in the 70s and 80s. Below average temperatures
are expected for California as the Pacific System impacts the region, with
highs mainly in the 50s to low 60s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php