Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 31 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 02 2025

...Severe weather and heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic to the central
Gulf Coast Monday...

...Pacific system brings unsettled weather to the West with lower
elevation/coastal rains and heavy higher elevation snow...

...Severe weather threat Tuesday across portions of the Plains and
Midwest; significant multi-day flash flood threat begins from the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys southwest through the ArkLaTex Wednesday...

...Another Late season winter storm for the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday with heavy snowfall expected...

An upper level trough and accompanying surface frontal system over the
Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys this morning will continue
eastward Monday through the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and central Gulf
Coast. A combination of an ongoing line of thunderstorms ahead of the cold
front as well as renewed development along/ahead of the front during the
day will bring the threat of severe weather, with the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) outlining much of the region in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5).
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes can all be expected. In
addition, wet antecedent conditions along the central gulf Coast from
rainfall the past few days and plentiful Gulf moisture to support intense
downpours has prompted a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for
the risk of scattered instances of flash flooding. Some more isolated
instances of flash flooding will be possible more broadly across the
Southeast/southern Appalachians as well as for portions of the northern
Mid-Atlantic. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also forecast ahead of
the front across New England, including for northern new England where a
wintry mix/freezing rain early this morning will transition to rain
following the passage of a warm front and much warmer temperatures. Storms
should clear the East Coast by late Monday/early Tuesday morning as the
cold front moves into the Atlantic, with the chance a few flurries may mix
in behind the front across the interior Northeast. Thunderstorm chances
will continue for Florida into Tuesday.   

To the west, lower elevation showers and thunderstorms and heavy high
elevation snows will continue across much of the West as a strong Pacific
frontal system moves inland the next couple of days. The heaviest rainfall
is expected along the coastal ranges of northern California and southern
Oregon through Monday and early Tuesday, with much lighter amounts
elsewhere along the West Coast and inland through the Great Basin into the
northern/central Rockies. Some snow may mix in for interior locations,
though little to no accumulations are expected. Significant heavy snowfall
also continues for the northern California ranges as well as the Sierra
Nevada, where storm totals snowfall through the next couple of days is
forecast to exceed 2-4 feet for higher elevations. Heavy snowfall totals
upwards of 12"+ will also be possible for regional mountain ranges of the
central Great Basin and the northern/central Rockies. Strong winds with
gusts of 50 to 70 mph will accompany a cold front passage through much of
interior California, the Great Basin, and into the Southwest/southern High
Plains Monday into Tuesday. A fire weather threat will persist across
portions of the southern High Plains given these gusty winds along with
very dry conditions and warm temperatures. The Storm Prediction Center has
included an Elevated Risk (level 1/3) for Monday with the return of a
Critical Risk (level 2/3) for Tuesday that will likely continue through
Wednesday. 

The upper-trough/frontal system responsible for the unsettled weather over
the West will continue eastward onto the Plains during the day Tuesday,
with lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies helping to strengthen/reinforce
the low pressure/frontal system as it moves northeastward from the central
Plains to the Midwest. Intensifying moist southerly flow will bring
increasing thunderstorm chances across the Central/Southern Plains and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday evening and into the overnight
hours Wednesday. Strong upper- and lower-level dynamics given the strength
of the wind fields as well as sufficient instability is expected to lead
to some intense thunderstorms, with the SPC maintaining a Slight Risk of
severe weather (level 2/5) for the threat of very large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes. In addition, more widespread clusters of
storms with the potential for some heavier downpours ahead of a lifting
warm front over the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley may lead to some isolated
flash flooding. The system is expected to slow down on Wednesday as a
ridge builds ahead of it over the eastern U.S. The cold front is expected
to stall through the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys southwest through the
Mid-South and ArkLaTex, with repeated rounds of storms leading to multiple
days of significant heavy rainfall beginning Wednesday. A Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) is in place centered over the Lower Ohio
Valley into the Mid-South where the highest threat for scattered to
numerous instances of flash flooding is currently expected.

Meanwhile, a band of moderate to heavy snow will set up along and to the
north of the low track from the central Dakotas eastward through
central/northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin with snowfall beginning
as early as Monday night. Snowfall is forecast to ramp up in intensity
through late Tuesday and into the day Wednesday, with total accumulations
of 4-8", locally 8"+. A mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected just to
the southeast of the snow band from Wisconsin into Michigan late Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

A progressive pattern the next couple of days with one system leaving the
East Coast and the next system passing through the West and into the
Plains will lead to some fluctuating temperatures for many locations,
though conditions will generally tend to be warmer/above average along the
southern tier and colder/below average along the northern tier of the
country. Well above average highs are expected Monday across the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic before a cold front passage brings cooler, more
seasonable temperatures on Tuesday. Highs across the Northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will remain chilly and below average while
cooler highs on Monday for the central Plains and the Midwest will warm
above average Tuesday. Highs will remain warm and above average across the
Southern Plains into the Southeast. Generally average conditions across
the Interior West Monday will be followed by much cooler, below average
conditions on Tuesday following the passage of the Pacific system.  

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php