Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 00Z Tue 25 Mar 2025 - 00Z Tue 01 Apr 2025

Guidance is consistent in showing a front stalling just north the
main islands early this week, leading to fairly weak winds 
initially. Trades should pick up some from the east or southeast 
Tuesday onward while the front lifts back to the north. The 
average of guidance suggests that background flow will be 
sufficient to support some windward focus for showers, but at 
times it could be weak enough to allow for sea breeze influence. 
The late week into early weekend time frame should see the 
lightest rainfall as an upper ridge builds into and settles over 
the area. As has been the case in recent days, the GFS/GEFS are 
weaker with this ridge than the majority of other solutions 
including machine learning models. By later Sunday through Monday 
consensus shows the low level winds turning more southerly ahead 
of a developing system well to the west/northwest of the state. 
The leading edge of the moisture axis ahead of the system may edge
into the western islands by next Monday but the heavier rainfall 
should remain well westward.

Rausch