Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
623 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 12Z Fri 28 Mar 2025 - 12Z Tue 01 Apr 2025

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Today's 12 UTC guidance suite features good overall agreement 
across and in the vicinity of Alaska Friday into Sunday and a 
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model blend serves as a well detailed 
forecast starting point. More noteworthy differences become 
apparent later into early next week, especially with lows over 
the Gulf of Alaska and with general flow progression from the 
Bering Sea/Strait into the mainland. Prefer a solution closest to 
the ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means that offer the best cycle to 
cycle guidance continuity in line with WFO Fairbanks reasonings.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Most of the state should enjoy a generally benign and dry weather
pattern for much this forecast period. An amplified and complex 
mean upper trough will encompass most of the Gulf of Alaska to 
close out the month of March, with embedded surface lows rotating 
around compact closed upper lows. Most of the rainfall associated 
with this should be offshore, although some precipitation may 
reach the southern mainland into the weekend. Expect some enhanced
wind flow well on the backside of these lows from the southeast 
Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula into the western Gulf of Alaska. 
Meanwhile, a strong upper ridge will become established over the 
Aleutians and Bering Sea this week, possibly shifting through 
western Alaska into next week. In this pattern, a mean upper 
trough will persist to the lee of the ridge over the Interior 
whose embedded vortices may focus and enhance some local snow 
chances in a cooled environment. Warm air advection along and 
ahead of a warm front approaching from the Bering Sea will likely 
then also produce some periods of light snow across portions of 
the western mainland late Sunday into Monday, and perhaps warm 
enough for some rain closer to the western coastal areas.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html