Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
519 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025


Valid 12Z Wed 11 Jun 2025 - 12Z Sun 15 Jun 2025



...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
The WPC Alaskan medium range pressures, winds, PoPs, and QPF were 
mainly derived from a composite blend of well clustered guidance 
of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian models early on, with some 
ensemble mean contribution from the EC/NAEFS to help deal with the
detail issues that arise in and near the Bering Sea. Other grids 
were more reliant on the 19z NBM. This solution maintains 
reasonable product continuity in an active pattern with above 
average predictability. The guidance offers reasonably similar 
larger scale flow evolutions into next week with persistent
ridging in the eastern AK interior and persistent/strengthening
troughing in and near the Bering Sea, where a few cyclones will be
moving through mid next week into next weekend.



...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Precipitation and chances thereof fade across Southeast AK and 
the AK Panhandle, while they increase across western and northern
AK as two or three cyclones move through the Bering Sea around the
mean trough. Periods of gales are expected near the Aleutians and
AK Peninsula next week with gales also possible near the northwest
coast; wind gusts are expected to remain below storm-force. 
Across the eastern interior, NBM probabilities of 80F+ high
temperatures have increased since yesterday into the likely 
realm, which has led to low to mid 80s being explicitly forecast 
late next week into next weekend. Probabilities of 90F+ are non-
zero in a couple spots, which will need to be watched as we get 
closer in time.

Roth



Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html