Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
519 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025


Valid 12Z Tue 10 Jun 2025 - 12Z Sat 14 Jun 2025



...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
The WPC Alaskan medium range pressures, winds, PoPs, and QPF were 
mainly derived from a composite blend of well clustered guidance 
of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian models early on, with some 
ensemble mean contribution from the EC/NAEFS and decrease in 12z
GFS use late when it departs from the consensus. Other grids were
more reliant on the 19z NBM. This solution maintains excellent 
product continuity in an active pattern with above average 
predictability. Outside of the 12z GFS, guidance offers reasonably
similar larger scale flow evolutions into next week with a cold 
low dropping by the AK Panhandle, leading to building ridging 
across the interior which then moves east, while a deep layer 
cyclone or two move by the Aleutians and through portions of the 
southern Bering Sea maintaining a mean trough aloft in that region.



...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Low elevation rain and mountain snow fades across Southeast AK and
the AK Panhandle next week as the cyclone near southern mainland 
AK drops southeast and fills. This should lead to a period of 
clearing across the AK interior as ridging builds in. Snows in the
Brooks Range show a decline early on while this occurs. A pair of
deep layer cyclones moving by the Aleutians into the southern 
Bering Sea should bring some gales near the Aleutians and AK 
Peninsula next week. Rain should be a persistent threat for 
portions of the Aleutians and AK Peninsula, while PoPs remain 
modestly high across western AK and return after a brief respite 
across the Brooks Range due to the south to southwest flow on the
backside of the eastward-moving ridge.

Roth



Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html