Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 29 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 31 2025

...Severe weather threat across the Southern/Central Plains into the Lower
Missouri Valley late Saturday and through the Lower to Mid Mississippi
Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Ohio Valley on Sunday...

...Mix of winter weather threats including significant, damaging icing
from the Northern Plains east through the Upper Great Lakes as well as for
Upstate New York and central/northern New England...

...A brief period of drier weather for the Pacific Northwest into northern
California on Saturday before more rains return to this area Sunday...

...Much above average temperatures from the Central/Southern Plains east
to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast while below average temperatures stretch
along the northern tier from the Northern Plains into northern New
England...

An energetic upper-level trough and accompanying low pressure/frontal
system across the central to eastern U.S. will be responsible for an
active period of severe weather, heavy rain, and winter weather this
weekend. The strengthening low pressure system over the Central Plains in
the lee of the Rockies Saturday morning will move northeastward towards
the Midwest/Great Lakes through the weekend. A wavy quasi-stationary
frontal boundary extends east through the Midwest/Great Lakes into the
Northeast while a trailing cold front extends southwestward through the
Plains before curving back to the northwest along the front of the
Rockies. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and
just to the north of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary through the day
Saturday. A separate area of more widespread showers and thunderstorms
will also continue ahead of a leading upper wave over the Lower
Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast. Plentiful moisture,
especially within vicinity of the Gulf Coast, may lead to some locally
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. Then, into the evening and
overnight hours Saturday, increasing moist southerly flow will lead to an
expanding area of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the
eastward moving cold front across the central/Southern Plains and into the
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys. Increasing shear and instability along the cold
front as the upper-level trough progresses eastward may lead to a few more
intense thunderstorms from the central/southern Plains into the Lower
Missouri Valley. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a Slight
Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) mainly for the threat of some large
hail and damaging winds. Additional more widespread storms are expected
ahead of the front during the day Sunday as it continues east into the
Middle/Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys. Deep Gulf moisture
supported by another day of return flow as well as a pair of upper-level
shortwaves passing over the region will bring a more significant threat of
severe weather, with the SPC issuing a broad Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for
very large hail, destructive winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be
strong. In addition, locally heavy downpours may also lead to some
scattered instances of flash flooding.

To the north, a broad swath of damaging icing, light to moderate snowfall,
and sleet will extend roughly west to east from the Northern Plains
through the Great Lakes and into New England in a much colder airmass
north of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary. The swath of snow is
expected from northern Nebraska/southern South Dakota east through central
Minnesota and into far northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Forecast
snow totals generally range from 2-4", locally 4-8", with these heavier
amounts most likely from northern Wisconsin into the UP of Michigan
Saturday through Sunday. Some light to moderate snows will also occur
across portions of northern New England. The freezing rain, with likely
significant/damaging icing totals of 0.25-0.5", locally as much as 1", is
expected just to the south of the snow band from central Minnesota east
through northern Wisconsin, the UP of Michigan, the northern LP of
Michigan, as well as through portions of Upstate New York into
central/northern New England. These amounts of ice are likely lead to tree
damage and power outages. Precipitation chances will taper off late Sunday
and into the day Monday.

Additional areas of a lower elevation rain/snow mix and higher elevation
snow are expected through the northern/central Rockies this weekend as the
upper-trough passes overhead and supported by upslope flow with the cold
front pushing into the mountains. Little to no snow accumulations are
expected for lower elevations, but some additional moderate to locally
heavy snowfall is forecast for the regional mountain ranges. After a brief
dry period later Saturday as lingering showers end for the Pacific
Northwest, another Pacific system approaching the West Coast Sunday will
bring coastal/lower elevation rain and higher elevation snows, especially
from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. The heaviest rainfall
is expected along upslope portions of the coastal ranges near the
California/Oregon border, with moderate to heavy snowfall especially for
higher elevations of the northern California ranges/Sierra Nevada. Even
heavier rain/snow amounts are expected into Monday.

Much above average temperatures are expected this weekend ahead of the
cold front from the Central/Southern Plains east to the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. Forecast highs will be in the 70s and 80s for most
locations which are upwards of 10-25 degrees above average for late March.
The cold front passage will bring much colder highs to the Central Plains
on Sunday as temperatures fall into the 40s and 50s. Meanwhile, below
average, chilly temperatures are expected north of the quasi-stationary
frontal boundary across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and northern New
England, with highs only in the 30s and 40s. Conditions will generally be
around average across the West, with highs in the 50s for the Pacific
Northwest/Interior West, the 50s and 60s in California, and the 70s and
80s into the Southwest. The warm temperatures coupled with very dry and
windy conditions have prompted a Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3)
from the SPC for portions of southern/eastern New Mexico and western Texas
Saturday and Sunday.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php