Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 30 2025 - 00Z Tue Apr 01 2025

...There's a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall across parts of the
central Gulf Coast...

...Severe weather and heavy rainfall spread from Central/Southern Plains
tonight to Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Sunday then East Coast on
Monday; Freezing rain expected to bring Moderate to Major impacts to
portions of the Upper Midwest to interior Northeast...

...Unsettled weather arrives over the West Coast on Sunday...

...Critical Fire Weather conditions likely for much of the Southern High
Plains into next week; much above average temperatures across the South
and East through Monday...


Moist/unstable southerly flow from the Gulf interacting with a convergence
zone may produce impactful rainfall along the central Gulf Coast tonight.
Parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi are forecast to
pick up several inches of rain, which could lead to widespread Flash
Flooding. Thus, a Moderate (at least 40%) Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect for these areas this evening.

Meanwhile, a sprawling and dynamic mid-latitude cyclone will bring
multiple weather hazards to the Central and Eastern U.S. over the next
couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys tonight.
There's a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) over parts of
northern/central Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, western/central Missouri,
northwestern Arkansas and north-central Texas. Very large hail, damaging
winds and a couple tornadoes are possible. There's increasing potential
for a substantial severe weather outbreak to unfold across the
Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center
issued a broad Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 3/5) from the
ArkLaTex region to southern Michigan. Very large hail, damaging winds and
strong tornadoes are expected. Snow showers and freezing rain will
continue to proliferate from the Northern Plains to the Northeast through
Sunday night. Freezing rain will likely be the most impactful weather type
within the cold sector, with accumulating ice expected to produce
considerable disruptions to daily life in these areas. Avoid travel if
possible in parts of northeastern Wisconsin and portions of central New
England through Sunday night.

Storms will continue to develop along the attendant cold front, associated
with the low pressure system moving through the Mississippi Valley, and
spread into the Gulf/East Coasts on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center
issued a very broad Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms from the Gulf
Coast to southern Upstate New York. Some heavy rain is possible within
convective systems propagating through portions of the Lower
Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys Sunday night into Monday. Elsewhere, very
dry, warm and windy conditions will promote Critical Fire Weather in parts
of the Southern High Plains over the next few days. Temperatures will
remain well above average for the Eastern half of the country until
Tuesday, when cooler air behind the aforementioned cold front pushes
through. Anomalously mild minimum temperatures may tie or break existing
records over portions of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast tonight
and Sunday night. A deep low pressure system will bring heavy snow to the
Sierra Nevada, while spreading low elevation rain, high winds and cooler
temperatures throughout the broader Western U.S. beginning on Sunday.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php