Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 01 2025 - 00Z Thu Apr 03 2025

...Severe weather and heavy rainfall for portions of the Mid-Atlantic to
the Southeast this evening...

...Pacific system brings unsettled weather to the West with lower
elevation/coastal rains and heavy higher elevation snow...

...Severe weather threat Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the
Plains and Midwest; significant multi-day flash flood threat begins from
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys southwest through the ArkLaTex Wednesday...

...Another late season winter storm for the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday with heavy snowfall expected...

The risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall continues this evening into
the early nighttime hours from the Mid-Atlantic to parts of the Southeast.
Warm and moist air streaming northward out ahead of a strong cold front
will set the stage for an organized line of strong to severe
thunderstorms. The strongest storms will be capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes. As a result, the Storm
Prediction Center continues to maintain a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe weather from the northern Mid-Atlantic to the Panhandle of Florida,
and an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across portions of the Carolinas and
Georgia. In addition, the plentiful moisture in place will lead to
downpours in spots. Some isolated instances of flash flooding will be
possible across the Southeast/southern Appalachians as well as for
portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
also in the card across portions of New England; however, limited
instability should keep the severe weather and heavy rain threat farther
south. Storms should clear the East Coast overnight into early Tuesday
morning as the cold front moves into the Atlantic, with the chance a few
flurries may mix in behind the front across the interior Northeast.
Thunderstorm chances will continue for Florida into Tuesday.   

To the west, lower elevation showers and thunderstorms and heavy high
elevation snows will continue across much of the West as a strong Pacific
frontal system moves through the region over the next couple of days. The
heaviest rainfall is expected along the coastal ranges of northern
California and southern Oregon through early Tuesday, with much lighter
amounts elsewhere along the West Coast and inland through the Great Basin
into the northern/central Rockies. Some snow may mix in for interior
locations, though little to no accumulations are expected. Significant
heavy snowfall also continues for the northern California ranges as well
as the Sierra Nevada, where storm totals snowfall through the next couple
of days is forecast to exceed 2-4 feet for higher elevations. Heavy
snowfall totals upwards of 12"+ will also be possible for regional
mountain ranges of the central Great Basin and the northern/central
Rockies. Strong winds with gusts of 50 to 70 mph will accompany a cold
front passage through much of interior California, the Great Basin, and
into the Southwest/southern High Plains through Tuesday. A fire weather
threat will persist across portions of the southern High Plains given
these gusty winds along with very dry conditions and warm temperatures.
The Storm Prediction Center has included an Elevated Risk (level 1/3) for
this afternoon/evening with the return of a Critical Risk (level 2/3) for
Tuesday and Wednesday. 

The upper-trough/frontal system responsible for the unsettled weather over
the West will continue eastward onto the Plains during the day Tuesday,
with lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies helping to strengthen/reinforce
the low pressure/frontal system as it moves northeastward from the central
Plains to the Midwest. Intensifying moist southerly flow will bring
increasing thunderstorm chances across the Central/Southern Plains and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday evening/night. Strong dynamics
combined with increasing instability is expected to lead to some intense
thunderstorms, with the Storm Prediction Center maintaining a Slight Risk
of severe weather (level 2/5) for the threat of very large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes. In addition to the Slight Risk, a small
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) was outlined across southeastern Kansas,
highlighting the highest probabilities for severe weather. More widespread
clusters of storms with the potential for some heavier downpours ahead of
a lifting warm front over the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley may lead to
some isolated flash flooding. The system is expected to slow down on
Wednesday as a ridge builds out ahead of it over the Eastern U.S. Further
increasing moisture and instability in conjunction with strong forcing
along and ahead of the cold front is likely to lead to an outbreak of
severe weather on Wednesday from the Lower Great Lakes into parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and the ArkLaTex region. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued a large Enhanced Risk area (level 3 of 5) for the
potential for significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and large
hail. More than 45 million people are within the outlined Enhanced Risk
area, and more than 90 million are under the threat of severe weather in
total. The cold front is expected to stall through the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys southwest through the Mid-South and ArkLaTex region, with repeated
rounds of storms leading to multiple days of significant heavy rainfall
beginning Wednesday. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) is
in place centered over the Lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South where the
highest threat for scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding is
currently expected.

Meanwhile, a band of moderate to heavy snow will set up along and to the
north of the low track from the central Dakotas eastward through
central/northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin with snowfall beginning
later tonight. Snowfall is forecast to ramp up in intensity through late
Tuesday and into the day Wednesday, with total accumulations of 4-8",
locally 8"+. A mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected just to the
southeast of the snow band from Wisconsin into Michigan late Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

A progressive pattern the next couple of days with one system leaving the
East Coast and the next system passing through the West and into the
Plains will lead to some fluctuating temperatures for many locations,
though conditions will generally tend to be warmer/above average along the
southern tier and colder/below average along the northern tier of the
country. Today's well above average highs across the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic will give way to cooler, more seasonable
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday in the wake of a cold front. Highs
across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will remain
chilly and below average while temperatures for the central Plains and the
Midwest will warm above average Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs will remain
warm and above average across the Southern Plains into the Southeast. Much
cooler and below average temperatures are expected across the West Tuesday
into Wednesday following the passage of the Pacific system.  

Miller/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php