Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 29 2025 - 00Z Mon Mar 31 2025

...The heavy rain and flash flood threat moves away from South Texas and
into East Texas and Louisiana this afternoon into tonight...

...Much above average temperatures from the Central to Southern Plains,
east into the eastern U.S., while below average temperatures stretch along
the northern tier from the Northern Plains into northern New England...

...Winter weather threats continue along the northern tier from the
Northern Plains, into the Upper Mississippi Valley, Upper Great Lakes, far
northern NY State and central to northern New England...

...Severe weather threat across the Southern to Central Plains into the
Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday and through the Lower to Mid Mississippi
Valley, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley on Sunday...

...A brief period of drier weather for the Pacific Northwest into Northern
California on Saturday before more rains return to this area Sunday...


After several days of very heavy rainfall across South Texas, where
rainfall totals of 6 to 12"+ have been observed, the upper level
disturbance that has been producing the wet weather will move eastward
into East Texas and Louisiana tonight into Saturday.  This will shift the
threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding into East Texas and across
Louisiana over next 24 hours.  Rainfall totals are not expected to be as
extreme as was observed over South Texas.  Still,  heavy rains may produce
localized flooding from this afternoon into Friday night from East Texas
into Louisiana where flood watches are currently in effect.

Much of the nation to the east of the Rockies will see much above average
temperatures this weekend.  Much above average temperatures are expected
to stretch from the Central to Southern Plains, eastward into much of the
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and large portions of the east coast. 
Colder than average temperatures are expected to persist across the
northern tier from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley,
Upper Great Lakes, far northern NY State and into central to northern New
England.  In addition to the colder than average temperatures across the
northern tier, there will be potential for two rounds of accumulating snow
and ice.  The initial round will spread wintry weather from northern
Minnesota into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, far northern NY State and
northern New England through Friday night and into continuing Saturday
from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, far northern NY State into northern
New England.  This will be followed by a second batch of wintry weather
developing across the Central to Northern Plains Saturday and moving into
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes Saturday night/early Sunday
and back across portions of central to northern New England during the day
on Sunday.  Snow totals from the two events may reach as high as 6 to 8
inches across portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, far northern NY
State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and western Maine.  Ice
accumulations of .25-.50"+ are possible from northern Wisconsin, across
the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, eastern Upper Peninsula of
Michigan, northern NY State and across much of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The colder than average air over the northern tier will begin to surge
southward into the Central Plains on Saturday and Southern Plains on
Sunday.  Thunderstorms are expected to become increasingly active along
and ahead of this front this weekend.  This will bring the potential for
severe weather on Saturday across the Southern to Central Plains into the
Lower Missouri Valley and through a larger region from the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley on Sunday.

After several days of wet weather from the Pacific Northwest into Northern
California, drier conditions are expected Saturday. However, this will be
short lived as the next system moving off the northeast Pacific will
spread the threat of additional rains into northern California and the
Pacific Northwest on Sunday.

Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php