Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jul 08 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of Southern New England on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern Plains on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains on Tuesday...

...Dangerous heat persists across the Southeast despite a
shrinking eastern U.S. heat footprint...

The footprint of the oppressive heat that affected portions of the
central and eastern U.S. last week will continue to contract
through early this week as seasonable to below-normal temperatures
spread across much of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio
Valley. The cooler air will be accompanied by a slow-moving
frontal boundary and areas of low pressure, supporting multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms with an increasing threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Northern Plains
will dissipate over the Central/Northern Plains by Monday
afternoon.  The boundary will settle into the Carolinas westward
to the Southern Plains by Wednesday. The system will produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Southern
New England. The WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern New England on
Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

In addition, a second area of Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall is over the Mid-Atlantic into Western Pennsylvania on
Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into Western Pennsylvania.  The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable, and landslides on roads. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
of excessive rainfall extends from parts of the Northeast to the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

Furthermore, a second front extending from the Northern Plains,
southwestward into the Great Basin will move into the Upper Great
Lakes roughly to the Great Basin by Wednesday. The system will
trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Midwest/Northern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Midwest/Northern Plains through Tuesday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

As the front moves eastward, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Midwest/Northern Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Moreover, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper Midwest/Northern Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will mainly create localized
flash-flood areas, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas most vulnerable, and landslides on roads.

On Wednesday, as the boundary moves into the Upper Great Lakes,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over the area. Elsewhere,
an influx of moisture over the Great Basin will trigger showers
and thunderstorms from late afternoon into the late evening on
Monday and Tuesday. Additionally, diurnal heating and ample
moisture will trigger showers and thunderstorms from late
afternoon into the late evening over parts of the Gulf Coast and
into Florida.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php