Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 AM EST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 01 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026

...A return to a wet weather pattern for the West coast to begin
2026...

...Much above average temperatures to stretch from the Northern
Rockies, through the Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley,
while below average temperatures expected from the Upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast...

...Active Lake Effect snows Thursday into Friday downwind of Erie,
Ontario and eastern Superior...


After a brief dry period along the West coast to end 2025, 2026
will see the re-establishment of a wet weather pattern for much of
the West coast.  A lead mid to upper level trof will move into
central California Thursday, followed by a much stronger system
strengthening off the northern California/Pacific Northwest coast
Friday and Saturday.  There is the potential for heavy rains along
the entire California Coast Ranges and through the Sierra
Thursday, posing the risks of flooding across areas that have seen
much above average precipitation over the past few weeks.  For
Thursday, the greatest risk of flooding will be across Southern
California where soil moisture remains high from very heavy rains
that occurred during the Christmas holiday.  Flood watches are
currently in effect across portions of Southern California.  There
will be a brief respite to heavy rains across California early
Friday before the strengthening storm off the Northern
California/Pacific Northwest coast sends additional heavy
precipitation into Central to Northern California and southwest
Oregon late Friday into early Saturday, with an increasing flood
risk for northwest California at this time.

The New Year will start out relatively warm from the West Coast,
east through the Rockies and into the Plains, Lower Mississippi
Valley and Southeast.  The most anomalous warmth expected across
the Plains where high temperatures Thursday and Friday are
expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above average.  Colder than
average temperatures will be confined to the Upper Mississippi
Valley, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.  A
reinforcing show of cold air is currently pressing eastward from
the eastern Lakes into the Northeast supporting the aforementioned
below average temperatures.  There is the potential early Thursday
morning for snow squalls along this front, producing a brief
period of white out conditions and very hazardous travel across
the Northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.  More persistent
lake effect snow showers are likely Thursday into Friday downwind
of lake Erie, Ontario and the eastern portion of Lake Superior. 
This will support very heavy snow potential across far northwest
Pennsylvania, far western New York State and portions of northwest
New York State and over the eastern portion of the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan.  Across these areas,  Lake Effect Warnings and Winter
Storm warnings are in effect. 

Happy New Year!

Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php