Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 00Z Sat Feb 21 2026

...Very active weather pattern across much of the Lower 48 over
the next few days...

...The lead winter storm will be winding down across the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes Wednesday night, while the next
storm begins to deepen Thursday over the Central Plains and moves
northeast into the Upper Lakes Friday...

...An elevated to critical fire weather threat will continue
across the Southern Plains...

...Active West coast pattern continues with additional heavy low
elevations rains across California and additional heavy snows
through the Sierra...

...Much above average temperature likely through the Mississippi,
Ohio, Tennessee Valleys, Southeast and Florida, while below
average temperatures stretch from the Northern Plains, west
southwest across all of the West...


An overall very active weather pattern will be affecting large
portions of the Lower 48 over the next few days with several well
defined storms affecting the Central to Eastern U.S., while
another storm system drops into California.  The lead winter storm
that produced high winds across the Rockies and Plains, along with
heavy snows over the Colorado Rockies and across the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Lakes will be winding
down Wednesday night into early Thursday over the Upper Lakes
region.  Any additional accumulating snows confined to northern
Wisconsin into the western portions of the U.P. of Michigan early
tonight.  In the wake of this system, another storm is expected to
develop over the Central Plains Thursday and move northeastward
into the Upper Lakes region by Friday.  Heavy snows are possible
from northeast Wyoming, across northern Nebraska, northwest Iowa,
southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin into the western U.P. of
Michigan and the Arrowhead of Minnesota with this next system. 
Foot plus snow totals were observed in the Arrowhead of Minnesota
from the first strong low, with additional 6-12" possible across
this area with the second storm.  Snow totals in excess of 6" also
possible with this second storm across the western U.P. of
Michigan, northern Nebraska and portions of northeast Wyoming.

In addition to the winter weather threat from this next deepening
storm,  thunderstorms are likely to develop Thursday evening into
Thursday night from the Ohio Valley, eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic in association with the frontal boundaries emanating
from this next storm.  Severe thunderstorms are possible across
the Ohio Valley region Thursday evening into Thursday night with
large hail and high winds the greatest severe weather threat, with
tornadoes a lower threat. 

To the south of the snow and thunderstorm threat from this next
storm, dry conditions and gusty winds will continue to support an
elevated to critical fire weather threat across large portions of
the Southern Plains Thursday and Friday.  Red Flag warnings are
currently in effect for much of New Mexico, far Southwest Texas
and from southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas, across the TX/OK
Panhandle, much of Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and large
portions of Missouri.

The series of storms affecting California will continue with the
arrival of the next system pushing east southeastward off the
eastern Pacific and into central to northern California early
Thursday.  Additional lower elevation rains likely from coastal
Oregon, south along all of the California coast, while additional
heavy snow is likely from the higher elevations of Northern
California, southeast through the Sierra.  Portions of the Sierra
have received 4 to 5+ feet of snow over the past few days, with
additional accumulations of 1 to 2 feet likely from this next
storm. 

Temperature wise, big contrasts expected west to east across the
Lower 48 over the next few days.  Below average temperatures
likely for all areas from the Rockies to the West Coast, including
the Northern Plains.  In contrast. much above average temperatures
are expected through the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys,
Lower Lakes, Central to Southern Appalachians, Southeast and
Florida.  In these regions, record high temperatures are possible
Thursday into Friday from the Lower Mississippi Valley, TN Valley,
Southeast and central to northern Florida.  Record low maximum
temperatures are again possible Thursday for portions of the
Interior Valleys of California.

Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php