Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 11 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026

...An anomalous polar plunge will bring the coldest air of the
season so far to much of the central and eastern U.S. beginning
Wednesday night...

...An expansive low pressure system will bring windy conditions for
the eastern U.S. by Thursday, with scattered rain, embedded
thunderstorms in the Midwest, and wet snow for interior New
England...

...Unseasonable warmth continues across much of the West, with a
few daily record highs possible in parts of the Northwest and
Great Basin...

An anomalous amplification of the upper-level pattern over the
North American continent will pull a polar airmass from
northeastern Canada into the eastern half of the country for late
this week. Meanwhile, a low pressure wave currently tracking
eastward across the northern Plains is forecast to intensify and
expand into a large cyclone as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic coast on
Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of an intensifying
cold front will move across the Midwest as well as the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys Wednesday to Wednesday night. Some storms in the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys could produce damaging wind gusts. Gusty
northwest winds will follow behind the front from the Plains into
the Midwest along with falling temperatures. By Friday morning,
below freezing temperatures could reach as far south as Tennessee
and southern Appalachians. Rainfall does not appear particularly
heavy for the Mid-Atlantic but a steady rain is expected to
develop from northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England on
Thursday, which will likely linger into Friday as the expansive
cyclone begins to move off the East Coast. This will bring
increasing winds near the coast and the risk for minor coastal
flooding at high tides. As colder air wraps in behind the system,
rain is forecast to snow over the higher elevations of the central
and southern Appalachians Thursday night, and wet snow is possible
in the higher terrain of the interior Northeast.

Behind the front, much colder air will spread south and east across
the central U.S, the Mississippi Valley, and the South through
Thursday. Highs are forecast to fall into the 40s across much of
the Midwest, and lows in the 20s are expected over the northern
Plains by Friday morning. That would bring the first freeze of the
season to several areas that have not yet seen one, with a
widespread hard freeze forecast to extend into the South this
weekend. Cold air moving over the relatively warm Great Lakes will
produce lake-effect rain and snow showers beginning Wednesday
night, with accumulating snow likely over the higher terrain of the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan and near the south shore of Lake
Superior. Dry air and gusty north winds will raise fire danger
across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and the central Gulf
Coast on Thursday. Farther south, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday afternoon ahead of a developing cold front.

Across the West, strong high pressure will extend the recent dry
and unseasonably warm spell, with a few near-record highs possible
from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and southern
Idaho. Rain will continue along the Washington coast and Olympic
Mountains on Wednesday as a front stalls offshore. By late
Thursday, a potent front ahead of the next Pacific storm will
approach the West Coast, with heavy rain approaching northern
California and the Pacific northwest Friday morning.


Kong/Eovino


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php












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