Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 00Z Sat May 16 2026 - 00Z Mon May 18 2026

...Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across much of Iowa with
a slight risk extending down to the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles...

...Next round of strong to severe thunderstorms forecast for the
northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning...

...Heat builds across the central Plains as cool and unsettled
weather spreads into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies...

A nearly stationary front extending across the midsection of he
country will be the focus for rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms through the next couple of days. A weak warm front
will lift northward into the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest Friday
evening into Saturday, increasing the chances for showers and
thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. Thunderstorms could also
become severe farther southwest across the central Plains to the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Therefore, Storm Prediction Center
has issued a Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across Iowa and
Slight Risk across parts of Upper Midwest and central/southern
Plains through Saturday morning. On Saturday, the enhanced severe
weather threat develops across parts of northeast Colorado into
southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas as two frontal boundaries
move into central Great Basin/Central Plains into Great Lakes.

Across the west, a shortwave trough will develop over the Pacific
Northwest bringing unsettled weather. Expect lower elevation
showers and a chance for some embedded thunderstorms with high
elevation snow through Saturday. As the frontal system moves into
the Northern Rockies/Plains, chances for showers and thunderstorms
develop along the front. In addition, there will be a chance for
high elevation snow/mixed precipiation further inland over the
northern Rockies early on Sunday. Winds will be gusty as a low
pressure system begins to expand and develop over the northern and
central High Plains early on Sunday.  The frontal system will also
expand the chances for strong to severe thunderstorms across the
northern Plains Saturday night, reaching into the upper Midwest
early on Sunday.

Under a upper-level ridge, above normal temperatures will continue
for central and eastern U.S. through much of the weekend with
highs between 80s across much of the eastern U.S. on Saturday and
rising to 90s on Sunday, while central U.S. will see mostly 90s
through the weekend. On Monday, below normal temperatures across
the northwest will spread eastward into north-central U.S.
bringing 15-20 degrees below average highs across the area. 


Oudit/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php