Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026

...Potential for a coastal storm Sunday night into Monday for the
Northeast U.S. but with very uncertain overall impacts...

...General Overview...

Colder weather will be arriving for much of the eastern U.S. going
into the weekend after a cold front sinks south towards the Gulf
Coast. A wave of low pressure develops along this boundary across
the Deep South late Saturday deepening as it exits the Mid-
Atlantic Coast Sunday, with a nor'easter becoming more likely
Sunday night into early Monday as the system intensifies in
response to an amplifying upper level shortwave. This is raising
concerns for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for rain and
inland snow, and gusty winds. Meanwhile out West, a large area of
low pressure develops off the Coast of Oregon and Washington,
keeping conditions unsettled going into the weekend and early next
week with the potential for an atmospheric river event to close out
the weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z model guidance suite is generally in good overall agreement
to begin the forecast period Saturday, with a nearly multi-
deterministic model blend sufficing as a starting point for fronts
and pressures. Going into the Sunday to Monday time period, there
is still a strong signal for an intensifying low pressure system
off the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, the 00Z guidance has trended a
little bit more offshore compared to the 12Z models that had it
closer to the coast near New England. The ECMWF has been more
suppressed in recent runs and taking it more out to sea, and the
other guidance has trended a little more in that direction. This
could still bring impacts to the coastal areas, but would result in
lesser inland impacts farther up the coast.

The NBM appeared fairly reasonable for most areas, although snow to
liquid ratios were lowered from the Sierra Nevada to the Cascades
going into the weekend. Some light QPF was added across the Great
Lakes over the weekend to better account for some lake effect snow,
and winds were increased closer to NBM75 near the Interstate 95
corridor from Virginia to eastern New England, but any more
southern trends in the guidance would mean lesser winds in future
forecasts, so still rather uncertain.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A developing low pressure system off the coast of Oregon is
expected to idle in place over the weekend and enhance onshore
flow from northern California to western Oregon, with the potential
for an atmospheric river event Sunday into Monday with a few
inches of rainfall possible in some areas, and heavy snow from the
highest elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada to the Cascades. A
Marginal Risk area will be valid for portions of northern
California and southwestern Oregon to account for this.

There remains a good potential for a coastal low by Sunday and
early Monday for the East Coast, but the track of the low remains
uncertain. A track closer to the coast would result in heavy
coastal rain and inland snow from the Mid-Atlantic to New England,
and strong winds near the coast with the potential for coastal
flooding. A more offshore solution like some of the 00Z guidance is
suggesting would mean less inland precipitation and wind, and
highest QPF near the DelMarVa and extending to eastern North
Carolina.

A strong cold front brings lower temperatures by the weekend to the
Ohio Valley and Mid-South, with slightly above normal temperatures
confined to the Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas, and near to
below normal to the north. Colder temperatures arrive Monday and
Tuesday for much of the eastern U.S., with highs likely to be 5 to
15 degrees below normal for many areas, with the coldest conditions
expected over the Northeast. A gradual warm-up is likely heading
into the middle of the week as the upper trough departs the East
Coast and the Canadian surface high modifies.

Hamrick



Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw