Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Forecast Bulletin 17 February 2026 at 1820 UTC:

Over the next three days, the regions of Mexico and north Central
America will see the effects of a strong mid to upper level ridge
that will favor seasonably dry conditions over the region. The
exception to these dry conditions is over northwest Mexico, where
the Subtropical Jet is accompanied by a weak upper level trough
favoring a cold front to enter California. The upper level jet
will favor troughing in the lower levels, particularly over the
Baja California Peninsula and north Sonora, where available
moisture will favor light precipitation on Tuesday. On Wednesday,
the frontal boundary makes its way into northern Baja California
and northwest Sonora, but as the amount of available moisture
remains low, the precipitation totals for the region will remain
below 20mm over north Baja California. By Thursday, a new frontal
boundary from the north and west enters northern Baja California,
favoring maxima of 10mm in the region.

In the Caribbean and the Bahamas/Turks and Caicos, a cold front is
expected to enter the Bahamas by the evening on Tuesday, where it
is expected to become stationary from Tuesday into Wednesday.
Although this system will be entering the region, trace amounts of
precipitation is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as moisture
remains low over the islands. to the south and east, prefrontal
troughs are developing over the Caribbean and central Atlantic,
where levels of moisture are expected to be higher on Tuesday and
Wednesday. These troughs will favor maxima of 10-15mm over the
region on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, the strong upper
level ridge is expected to extend to the east into the Caribbean
and into the Bahamas/Turks and Caicos, where it will favor
moderate trade wind inversions over most of the region. As the
frontal boundary has weakened in the central Atlantic, and moist
plumes from remnants of the front and troughs traveling along the
trade winds bring low levels of moisture over the islands, expect
trace amounts of precipitation over the region on Thursday.

In the southern portion of Central America, the region sees
enhanced moisture along the Caribbean coasts extending from south
Nicaragua through Panama, as the Low Level Jets continue over the
Caribbean Sea. This moisture is then advancing into the
mountainous terrains of the region, seeing orographic enhancement,
particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern changes on
Thursday when the extent of the Caribbean LLJ does not reach the
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, favoring moisture but not speed
to strengthen the orographic enhancement in the region. As such, a
decrease in precipitation is expected on Thursday. In addition, by
Thursday, a weak branch of the Sub-equatorial Jet is entering the
southern portions of Central America, favoring subsidence in the
region. On Tuesday, western Panama can expect maxima of 30-60mm,
while east Costa Rica and eastern Panama can expect maxima of
20-45mm. On Wednesday, Costa Rica can expect maxima of 20-40mm,
while central Panama can expect maxima of 30-60mm. On Thursday,
Costa Rica into western Panama can expect maxima of 20-35mm, with
potential for localized higher amounts.

In tropical South America, the areas of heavy precipitation are
remaining to the south, over the Amazon Basin, as well as in the
western coasts of Colombia, Ecuador, and northwest Peru. Over the
Amazon, the convergence associated with the Near Equatorial
Trough, and the presence of moisture are seeing diurnal influences
and deep convection is present over the region. To the west,
numerous conditions are present that will enhance precipitation
over Pacific coasts of the region, particularly in Ecuador on
Tuesday and Wednesday. The southern branch of the ITCZ is located
to the west of Ecuador and north Peru, where a section is favoring
long fetch moist onshore flow in the Gulf of Guayaquil and
northwest regions of Ecuador. In addition, the Panama LLJ is
favoring that this long fetch region remains there on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Another point to consider is that the Sea Surface
Temperatures (SST) are anomalously warm in the region, providing
fuel for convection with the present conditions. As such, western
Ecuador could expect maxima of 50-100mm on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with potential for locally higher amounts. Tumbes-Peru and in the
higher elevations could expect maxima of 30-60mm on Tuesday and
Wednesday. As the Panama LLJ weakens on Wednesday into Thursday,
the precipitation that develops over west Ecuador could extend
into southwest Colombia, where expect maxima of 30-60mm on
Wednesday. As these conditions weaken on Thursday, expect west
Ecuador to see a decrease in total precipitation of 20-45mm, with
potential for higher localized amounts. West Colombia can expect
maxima of 20-35mm.

Castellanos...(WPC)